Google Search vs. AI Chatbots: BofA Data Shows Google at 90% Share as Gemini Surges Past 27%

There is no specific BofA data point for June 2026 alone in the available sources, but the consistent message through Q2 is that Google's core search traffic has proven surprisingly resilient. Google also disclosed it now processes over 5 trillion searches annually, implying a 12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2016 to 2024, which BofA noted is healthy even if below the 19% CAGR for search revenue .

How AI Rivals Are Growing from Smaller Bases

The explosive growth among AI chatbots is real and dramatic, but it comes from tiny starting points relative to Google's overall search volume.

Claude: The Fastest-Growing Major AI Chatbot

Claude is the standout growth story of 2026. Its web visits surged from approximately 100 million in May 2025 to 953 million in May 2026 — an 855% year-over-year increase . It grew 228% in a single quarter from February to May 2026 . Comscore data shows Claude's desktop conversations skyrocketed 1,858% from October 2025 to March 2026, though from a very low base . Forbes reported Claude's traffic rose nearly 16% month-over-month in May 2026 alone .

By late May 2026, Claude's global web traffic share reached 8.9% to 9.2%, up from just 1.6% a year earlier . Its US mobile chatbot daily active user share hit roughly 17% as of June 2026, up from under 2% at the start of the year .

Meta AI: Data Gap

Publicly available sources in the search results do not provide specific comparable June 2026 traffic data for Meta AI. That is a gap in the current evidence.

ChatGPT: Still Largest, But Losing Share Fast

ChatGPT remains the largest AI platform but is losing market share rapidly. Its share of generative AI web traffic dropped from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% by January 2026, then further to approximately 54.7% by June 2026 . ChatGPT's absolute web visits are still growing — up 84% between September 2024 and March 2026 — but its relative dominance is shrinking fast .

Gemini's Share of Generative AI Traffic

Google's Gemini has been the primary beneficiary of ChatGPT's share loss, growing from a niche player to a clear #2.

• As of late May 2026, Gemini held 27.3% of global generative AI web traffic (Similarweb data), up from 25.5% in March and just 8.9% a year earlier .
• Other estimates put Gemini slightly higher at 27.4% in June 2026 .
• In January 2026, Gemini crossed the 20% threshold for the first time, up from 5.7% a year prior .
• Google announced at I/O 2026 that Gemini had 900 million monthly active users, up from 350 million in April 2025 and 750 million at Q4 2025 earnings .

Gemini has now overtaken Perplexity as a referral traffic source and is the clear #2 in generative AI market share behind ChatGPT .

Implications for Alphabet Ahead of Q2 2026 Earnings

Q2 2026 Earnings Expectations

Alphabet is expected to report Q2 earnings on July 22, 2026 . Wall Street consensus expects EPS of $2.86, up 23.8% year-over-year . Alphabet has beaten earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters, including Q1 2026 when it posted EPS of $5.11 (well above the $2.73 consensus) on revenue of $94.7 billion .

BofA's Rating and Thesis

• BofA Securities maintains a Buy rating on Alphabet with a $370 price target .
• BofA analyst Justin Post raised 2026 revenue estimates after Q1's beat and sees catalysts from AI search expansion cycles, monetization of AI Overviews (zero-click searches), Gemini monetization, and rollout of agentic capabilities .
• BofA's April 2026 report found that Google's search share rose to 90%, countering the narrative that ChatGPT was eating Google's lunch .

The Big Question: Expansion or Cannibalization?

The evidence points to a complex, mixed picture:

The expansion argument: AI chatbots are creating new use cases and growing the overall information retrieval pie. AI platforms now make up approximately 0.24% of global internet traffic , and the category is growing quickly for all major players, including ChatGPT's absolute traffic .

The cannibalization argument: BofA itself downgraded Monday.com in August 2025, citing Google's AI Overviews eroding SEO-driven traffic to third-party sites . Google's own query growth (12% CAGR) has lagged its revenue growth (19% CAGR), partly because AI Overviews answer queries without generating a click .

The net for Alphabet: Core search remains extremely sticky (90% share), and Gemini gives Google a powerful second front in the AI market. BofA's thesis is that Alphabet can monetize both — traditional search ads plus AI-powered answers and subscriptions — rather than seeing one cannibalize the other .