2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals: Schedule, Odds & France’s 39% Championship Probability

AT&T Stadium is hosting nine total World Cup matches — the most of any venue in the tournament — and this semifinal is being billed as the biggest match ever held in North Texas .

Wednesday, July 15 — England vs. Argentina

• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (referred to as Atlanta Stadium) in Atlanta, Georgia
• Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
• How they got here: England beat Norway 2–1 in extra time, with Jude Bellingham scoring twice; Argentina defeated Switzerland 3–1 in extra time
• Rivalry: This renews a classic World Cup rivalry, marking the first meeting between England and Argentina at a World Cup since 2002

Final & Third-Place Match

The tournament concludes over a single weekend at two venues:

The third-place match kicks off at 5 p.m. ET . The final is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET . The United States is hosting 78 matches in total, including all quarterfinals, semifinals, and the final .

Prediction Market Odds & France’s 39% Probability

France has emerged as the overwhelming favorite across major prediction markets, and the data supports that status.

Aggregate Probability

As of July 13, the aggregate probability for France to win the 2026 World Cup is 39.0% (+156 implied odds), with a 24-hour volume of $52.6 million across platforms . The probability has risen from 33–35% in early July as the semifinals approached .

Polymarket

Polymarket’s World Cup Winner market shows France at 39% with $4 billion in total volume and $29 million traded on the latest day alone . Other contenders on Polymarket as of July 6: Argentina at ~17%, England at ~15%, Spain at ~12% .

Kalshi

Kalshi prices France at approximately 39% (2.46x) on its winner contract, with over $1.16 billion in volume across 66 France-related markets . France sat at 39.8% on July 12 .

Other Contenders

Aggregate spreads are tight across exchanges — Polymarket ~39.5%, Kalshi ~39.1%, other platforms ~39.0% .

France also leads the “nation to reach the final” market at 61% implied probability .

Golden Boot Race

The search for this article did not surface a verified, current Golden Boot table with exact goal totals. Multiple sources (USA Today, Business Insider, FOX Sports, ESPN) mention Kylian Mbappé as France’s key attacking force alongside Ousmane Dembélé , and Lionel Messi as Argentina’s leader , but none publish a live Golden Boot standing. The claim that both Mbappé and Messi are on 8 goals each could not be confirmed via the sources retrieved.

Recommendation: For the most up-to-date Golden Boot leaderboard, check FIFA’s official tournament statistics or a dedicated live goal-scorer tracker.

Key Takeaways

• Semifinals are confirmed: France vs. Spain (July 14, Arlington) and England vs. Argentina (July 15, Atlanta)
• Final weekend: Third-place match at Hard Rock Stadium (July 18), Final at MetLife Stadium (July 19)
• France is the betting favorite: 39% aggregate probability across Polymarket and Kalshi, with $52.6M in 24-hour volume
• Prediction markets agree: Polymarket, Kalshi, and other exchanges show tight spreads around France at ~39%
• Golden Boot data is unconfirmed: This search could not verify the reported 8-goal totals for Mbappé and Messi