Max Verstappen's Red Bull Exit Clause Triggered: Jenson Button Says He Looks 'Frustrated and Lonely'

The speculation around Max Verstappen's future has escalated dramatically in July 2026. His performance-based exit clause has been triggered, Jenson Button has gone public with strong advice, Red Bull is already eyeing replacements, and the driver market dominoes are poised to fall.

Button: Verstappen is 'frustrated and lonely' — should push for Mercedes

Jenson Button has been one of the most vocal commentators. On the Sky Sports F1 podcast after the British GP weekend, Button described Verstappen as appearing "frustrated and lonely" at Red Bull, with the team in a "rut" and the Dutchman isolated as the only driver able to extract performance from the difficult RB21 . Button argued Verstappen should push hard for a Mercedes move, calling the prospect of a Verstappen–George Russell pairing something he would "love to see" . He also suggested that if Mercedes had to choose, it should drop Kimi Antonelli rather than Russell to make room for Verstappen .

Notably, Button has simultaneously issued a warning: the Mercedes atmosphere and car philosophy would be completely different from what Verstappen is used to at Red Bull, and the team may not design the car around him the way Red Bull has .

The 2028 contract and the exit clause — now triggered

Verstappen's Red Bull contract runs through the end of 2028, but contains a well-documented performance-based exit clause. The clause is tied to his championship standing at the summer break: if Verstappen is outside the top two in the drivers' championship when the break begins (after the Belgian and Hungarian GPs), he can trigger an exit for the following season (2027) . Verstappen's manager Raymond Vermeulen publicly confirmed the existence of this clause for the first time in June 2026 .

That clause has now been activated. After the British GP — where Verstappen finished seventh with a DNF — he sits seventh in the championship and is mathematically guaranteed to be outside the top two when the summer break starts . Multiple sources, including Sky Sports, RacingNews365, and GPFans, confirm that Verstappen can now formally trigger the clause to leave Red Bull for 2027 .

Red Bull's anticipated struggles and contingency planning

Red Bull's performance troubles have been a running theme. The RB21 is widely described as a difficult car, with Verstappen scoring 165 of Red Bull's 172 points after 12 races in 2025 — a staggering 96% share . Button himself has said the tricky car "proves what a talent" Verstappen is . The team is expected to continue struggling at Spa-Francorchamps this weekend, with no immediate fix in sight .

Contingency planning is already underway. According to a July 11 report citing Sky Sports commentator David Croft, Red Bull is closely monitoring Haas driver Oliver Bearman as a potential long-term replacement for Verstappen . Bearman, a Ferrari junior Academy driver on loan to Haas, has been identified as a candidate to step into the Milton Keynes team. Separately, Red Bull has also been linked with Oscar Piastri as its preferred replacement , and there have been reports that the team tried to buy out Verstappen's exit clause — discussed at a high-level Salzburg meeting in June involving Verstappen and his management — but those efforts appear to have failed given the clause was triggered days later .

Mark Webber's dismissal of a Piastri-Verstappen seat swap

Oscar Piastri's manager Mark Webber has forcefully rejected speculation that Piastri could swap seats with Verstappen. Speaking to Racer.com on July 10, 2026, Webber dismissed the reports as "fiction" and "nonsense," stating that Piastri is contracted to McLaren "for the foreseeable future" and that there is no truth to claims he is agitating to leave . This directly contradicts earlier German media reports from the Austrian GP suggesting Webber was preparing contingency plans for Piastri to move to Red Bull . McLaren CEO Zak Brown has also publicly dismissed a Piastri-Verstappen swap, citing satisfaction with the current lineup . Notably, however, Motorsport.com reported in May that Red Bull had "singled out Oscar Piastri as its preferred replacement for Verstappen," so the interest from Red Bull appears real even if Webber is publicly shutting it down .

Bottom line

Element	Status
Exit clause	Triggered — Verstappen can leave for 2027
Button's advice	Push for Mercedes; called him "frustrated and lonely"
Red Bull shortlist	Oliver Bearman, Oscar Piastri
Webber on Piastri swap	Dismissed as "fiction" and "nonsense"
Spa expectations	Continued struggle expected, no quick fix

The next window is the summer break itself — Verstappen must decide whether to formally trigger the exit clause. Mercedes, with Toto Wolff having long coveted Verstappen, is the most likely destination, but Button's warning about the cultural and car-dynamics shift remains a notable dose of caution.