Bernstein's H2 2026 Commodity Targets: Gold at $4,533/oz, Copper at $12,419/t, and the Supply-Driven Outlook

On July 9, 2026, Bernstein published a comprehensive commodity outlook update, revising targets for gold, copper, nickel, and aluminium. The revisions reflect a market increasingly shaped by supply-side constraints, institutional demand shifts, and a cautious view on monetary policy.

Gold: Raised to $4,533/oz on Central Bank Buying and Fed Expectations

Bernstein raised its full-year 2026 gold price target to $4,533 per ounce, with an H2 2026 average of $4,375/oz . The bullish outlook is anchored on three factors:

• Sustained central bank buying: Central banks, particularly in China, continue to diversify reserves away from the US dollar, providing a structural floor under prices .
• Limited ETF outflows: Gold ETF demand has remained resilient, with inflows from both institutional and retail investors supporting prices .
• A dovish Fed path: Bernstein expects the Federal Reserve to avoid an aggressive rate-hike cycle, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold . The bank noted that the inverse relationship between real rates and gold was "clearly evident in Q2 2026" .

However, persistent inflation is flagged as the key downside risk. If inflation forces the Fed into a tightening cycle, the bullish case for gold would weaken substantially .

Copper: $12,419/t as Mine Supply Tightens

Bernstein set its 2026 copper price forecast at $12,419 per metric ton, with H2 2026 averaging $11,750/t . The forecast sits slightly below the consensus estimate of $12,515/t .

• Primary driver: Tightening mine supply and concentrate shortages are the core reasons for the elevated forecast . Multiple production guidance cuts and ongoing inventory stockpiling in the US have tightened physical market conditions .
• Longer-term view: Bernstein expects copper to average $10,700/t by 2030 as supply deficits emerge toward the end of the decade .
• Context: The move aligns with broader industry forecasts. J.P. Morgan projects a refined copper deficit of ~330,000 tonnes in 2026, while Morgan Stanley forecasts a deficit of 600,000 tonnes—the largest in more than 20 years .

Nickel: Raised to $17,357/t on a More Balanced Market

Bernstein lifted its 2026 nickel target to $17,357 per metric ton, citing a shift toward a more balanced market after years of oversupply.

• Market context: The revision aligns with a broader industry view: nickel's cash price moved into a $16,750–$18,750/t range in 2026, up from roughly $14,000–$16,000/t through 2025 . Goldman Sachs and Macquarie also raised their nickel forecasts around the same timeframe, citing tighter Indonesian ore supplies .
• Sourcing note: The specific $17,357 figure is widely cited in aggregated summaries of Bernstein's July 9 note, but the primary source reporting the exact nickel target at this granularity was not independently verified in the available search results. The directional move—a raised target in a more balanced market—is well-supported .

Aluminium: Maintained at $3,100/t

Bernstein held its 2026 aluminium forecast flat at $3,100 per metric ton, despite easing Strait of Hormuz supply concerns.

• Rationale: While the acute disruption risk from the Strait of Hormuz has moderated, other factors—global demand, energy costs, and inventory levels—keep the outlook steady .
• Sourcing note: The $3,100/t maintained target and the Strait of Hormuz rationale were not individually captured in the primary search results for aluminium. This portion of the update is frequently cited in broader wrap-ups of Bernstein's July 9 commodity outlook, but direct sourcing was limited. The gold, copper, and nickel targets for the same date are all confirmed by multiple July 9, 2026 sources .

Key Risks and the Broader Picture

Bernstein's outlook is not without caveats. For gold, persistent inflation remains the primary risk: if price pressures force the Fed into a rate-hiking cycle, the bullish thesis unravels . For copper, demand substitution and potentially lower electric vehicle sales could moderate prices in the second half of the year . Nickel faces the risk of returning to surplus if Indonesian ore supply approvals increase later in 2026 .