Global PC Shipments Crash in Q2 2026 — Except Apple: What Caused the Decline and Who’s Next

The global PC market hit a wall in the second quarter of 2026. After nine consecutive quarters of growth, worldwide PC shipments fell 4.9% year-over-year, according to IDC . The culprit: a brutal memory and storage shortage that analysts have dubbed "RAMageddon" . The shortage has sent DRAM, 3D NAND, and SSD prices through the roof, forcing PC makers to raise prices and cut production.

Yet amid the carnage, Apple defied the trend. The company shipped 6.7 million Macs in Q2 2026 — a 10.1% year-over-year increase — lifting its global market share to 9.9% . The stark divergence raises a critical question: what went wrong for the rest of the industry, and what did Apple do differently?

What Caused the Q2 2026 PC Shipment Decline?

The memory and storage price shock

The root cause is a sharp, sustained surge in the cost of DRAM, 3D NAND, and SSDs. AI-sector demand has been soaking up memory fabrication capacity, creating a supply crunch that ripples through the entire PC supply chain . Gartner estimates that combined DRAM and SSD prices will surge 130% by the end of 2026 .

Omdia reports that memory and storage prices rose by at least 60% in Q1 2026 alone, with further increases expected throughout the year . IDC noted that manufacturers have been raising average selling prices (ASPs) and pulling back on production in response to the component scarcity — directly suppressing unit shipments

The end of the post-pandemic refresh cycle

The PC market had already been slowing after a multi-quarter recovery wave driven by Windows 11 commercial refreshes and hybrid-work upgrades . Vendors pulled shipments forward in late 2025 ahead of anticipated price increases, which only deepened the Q2 2026 hangover .

Forward buying created a demand vacuum

In Q4 2025, brands and buyers stockpiled inventory ahead of expected memory cost increases, artificially inflating shipments . That pull-forward effect meant Q2 2026 faced not only higher prices but also weaker underlying demand, as channels were already saturated.

How Apple Managed to Grow Mac Shipments Amid the Downturn

Apple shipped 6.7 million Macs in Q2 2026, a 10.1% year-over-year increase that made it the clear outlier among major PC vendors . Lenovo (-2.1%), HP (-9.0%), and Dell (-5.0%) all saw shipments decline .

The MacBook Neo effect

Apple's newly released MacBook Neo line was cited as the primary catalyst. It attracted both consumers and enterprise buyers with its combination of Apple Silicon performance and competitive pricing against rising Windows PC costs .

Q1 2026 momentum carried over

Apple's Q2 performance built on a strong first quarter. IDC reported that Apple's global PC market share reached 9.5% in Q1 2026 (up 40 basis points year-over-year), with shipments growing 9.1% . Gartner estimated even stronger Q1 growth of 12.7%, with Apple holding 10.6% global share . Omdia recorded Mac growth of 10.7% in Q1 .

Apple's structural insulation from the memory crisis

The company was less exposed to the component price shock because its custom Apple Silicon chips use unified memory architectures that partially insulate it from the spot DRAM market . Apple's supply chain had also secured better long-term memory contracts, giving it more stable costs .

Near-Term Outlooks from IDC, Gartner, and Omdia

All three major analyst firms agree that the memory shortage is the central driver of the downturn and that meaningful recovery will take until at least late 2027.

IDC:

• Full-year 2026 PC shipments to decline 11.3% .
• Q4 2026 expected to be the worst quarter, with shipments down ~20% year-over-year .
• Market stabilization not expected before the end of 2027 .
• Despite lower unit volumes, the total PC market value is forecast to rise to $274 billion due to sustained price increases .

Gartner:

• Projected global PC shipments to fall 10.4% in 2026 .
• Calls 2026 the steepest device shipment contraction in over a decade .

Omdia:

• Forecasts PC shipments to decline 12% in 2026 to 245 million units (desktops, notebooks, workstations) .
• Average PC prices predicted to exceed $1,000 by the end of 2026 .
• US PC shipments already dropped 7% in Q2 2026; recovery not expected until 2027, with shipments returning to prior levels by 2028 .

Omdia also notes that the impact is broadly consistent across product categories: desktops are set to decline by 10% to 53 million units, while notebooks and workstations will see similar scale reductions .