Bitcoin Recovery Above $64,000: What Drove the Rally and Why Analysts Are Split

2. Geopolitical risk-off unwind — Improving sentiment around a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement helped lift risk assets broadly. Bitcoin rebounded above $64,000 as easing Iran tensions, lower oil prices, and a broader risk-on move lifted markets .

3. Broader equity rally — Bitcoin climbed alongside U.S. stocks, with the recovery reinforced by the ETF inflows and improved macro sentiment .

Why Analysts Remain Divided

The bull case: The ETF inflow snapback is the strongest institutional demand signal in two months and could mark a turning point after sustained outflows. Some view the 200-week MA breakdown as a historically great buying opportunity — every prior weekly close below it has preceded a major cycle bottom .

The bear case:

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Resistance sits at $63,800–$64,100 (the zone bitcoin just reclaimed) and heavier resistance at $66,600–$67,600. A sustained daily close above $67,600 would open the path toward the $73,000–$76,700 EMAs cluster ; failure to hold $63,800 risks a retest of the 200-week MA near $59,000–$62,000 .

Bottom line: The $221.7M ETF inflow day was the direct trigger for the bounce above $64K, amplified by easing geopolitical fears. But the technical damage is real — the 200-week MA breakdown, Strategy's first major BTC sale, and a 50% drawdown from the ATH have created a genuine divide. Bulls see a historic buying opportunity; bears see the early innings of a deeper correction toward $48K–$50K.