Why JPMorgan Upgraded Antofagasta to Overweight — And Raised Its Price Target to 4,500 Pence

The Copper Price Thesis: A Bullish Macro Backdrop

JPMorgan's broader copper outlook has become markedly more bullish, and this shift directly supports the Antofagasta upgrade:

• Long-term copper forecast raised to $5.50/lb ($12,000/t): In February 2026, J.P. Morgan raised its long-term copper price by 9.1% to $5.50 per pound, citing widening structural supply deficits and sharply higher capital costs required for new mine development ^NM. The bank expects deficits to reach approximately 2 million tonnes by 2030 and up to 8 million tonnes by 2035 ^M.
• 2026 deficit deepening: J.P. Morgan projects a refined copper shortfall of ~330,000 metric tons in 2026, the largest gap in years, driven by mine supply growth stagnating at just +1.4% ^CA. Other analysts and the ICSG project a smaller 150,000-tonne deficit, but the consensus direction is clear ^L.
• Price peak expectations: The bank sees copper prices potentially breaking above $12,000/mt in the first half of 2026, with some models projecting peaks at $12,500/mt amid the structural shortage ^AS.
• Sector view: J.P. Morgan has maintained a structurally positive stance on the EMEA base metals sector since late 2024 and forecasts the global copper market will be in deficit "from 2026 onwards" ^I.

Market Reaction

• Antofagasta shares rose 0.9% in London trading on the day of the upgrade announcement ^S.
• The new 4,500p price target makes JPMorgan the most bullish analyst on the stock — the consensus average across 8 analysts is 3,756p, with the range spanning 2,800p to 4,500p ^ZM.
• Longer trajectory: JPMorgan had double-upgraded Antofagasta from Underweight to Overweight in February 2025 at a 2,400p target, then reiterated Overweight at 4,400p in February 2026, before this latest lift to 4,500p ^NIU.
• Mixed analyst consensus: Despite JPMorgan's bullishness, the broader analyst consensus is mixed — as of early 2026, MarketBeat data showed three Buys, three Holds, and one Sell, resulting in a consensus of "Hold" with a target of approximately 2,993p ^M. Deutsche Bank Research has a "Sell" rating ^M.

What This Means for Investors

The upgrade highlights a key tension in the copper sector: JPMorgan is betting that Antofagasta's organic growth profile and the structural copper deficit will drive outperformance, even as other analysts remain more cautious on valuation and macro risks. For investors, the key points to monitor are Antofagasta's progress on the Centinela expansion, the trajectory of copper prices through the forecast deficit in 2026, and whether broader economic headwinds — including geopolitical risks flagged by JPMorgan's own research ^J — affect demand.