Bernstein Raises ASML Price Target 33% to Street-High $2,623: The AI-Driven Thesis Behind the Upgrade

Revenue and EPS projections: ASML's own 2026 guidance calls for revenue of €34–39 billion, with the midpoint exceeding analyst expectations of €35.1 billion . For 2025, ASML reported €32.7 billion in net sales and EPS of €24.73 . Bernstein's topline increases for 2026 and beyond were described as "material" but specific EPS figures for the new target were not disclosed in public notes .

Valuation multiple: The $2,623 price target implies roughly 48% upside from ASML's prior close . As context, ASML had traded at a trailing P/E of ~60x in early April 2026 (87% premium to sector median) , though a forward multiple on Bernstein's revised estimates was not explicitly stated. The street-high target significantly exceeds the consensus average of ~$1,669 and the prior high of ~$2,007 .

Market reaction: ASML shares advanced about 3% in premarket trading on July 6 following the target increase . The stock had already gained 123% over the prior year as AI adoption widened .

Broader context of rising analyst confidence

Bernstein's upgrade is the latest in a series of bullish calls on ASML throughout 2026. The firm's own trajectory illustrates how quickly the AI thesis escalated:

• January 2026: Bernstein upgraded ASML to Outperform with a $1,528 target, naming it a top European semiconductor pick for 2026, citing DRAM investment and AI demand .
• January 29, 2026: After ASML's Q4 2025 earnings, Dai raised the target to $1,911, noting that strong results were overshadowed by profit-taking and creating a buying opportunity .
• March 26, 2026: Target raised further to $1,971 on accelerating DRAM capacity expansion, with the firm estimating DRAM capacity build-out accelerating from 145,000 additional wafers per month in 2025 to 435,000 by 2028 .
• April 2026: UBS and Deutsche Bank also lifted targets to €1,600+ after ASML's Q1 2026 results beat expectations .
• May 2026: BofA raised its target to €1,710, citing stronger Low-NA EUV shipments and raising EPS estimates by up to 14.5% for 2028 .

The consensus across the Street is now unanimously bullish, with every covering analyst rating ASML a buy or strong buy . The driving theme is AI infrastructure — ASML's lithography systems are essential for manufacturing the advanced logic chips and high-bandwidth memory that power AI models, and the pace of capacity investment by both logic foundries and memory makers continues to accelerate . A key catalyst came on March 24, when SK Hynix disclosed a roughly $8 billion EUV tool purchase from ASML — the largest single EUV commitment publicly disclosed by any ASML customer .