Bernstein Raises ASML Price Target 33% to Street-High $2,623: The AI-Driven Thesis Behind the Upgrade

On July 6, 2026, Bernstein SocGen analyst David Dai raised ASML's price target by 33% to a street-high of $2,623 (from $1,971), citing an "unprecedented AI-driven expansion" in advanced logic and DRAM capacity that led Bernstein to "materially increase" its topline forecasts ^CG. The upgrade reflects a broader wave of analyst confidence in ASML as the primary beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout, with all 19 analysts covering the stock now at buy or strong buy ^C.

Key details behind the upgrade

Primary catalyst: AI infrastructure demand is driving massive capacity expansion in both advanced logic chips and DRAM/HBM memory, which directly benefits ASML's lithography equipment ^C. Dai noted that High-NA EUV (high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet) technology "will likely be adopted first in DRAM than for logic due to lower cost of exposure for DRAM" ^C.

EUV shipment forecasts: While Bernstein's exact revised shipment numbers for the July 2026 note were not detailed in available sources, the firm had previously projected accelerating DRAM capacity expansion that would "more than double" EUV shipments to memory customers by 2028 ^S. BofA separately forecast Low-NA EUV tool shipments of 65 units in 2026, 85 in 2027, and 87 in 2028, reflecting the broader industry trend ^I. Bernstein's March 2026 estimates saw ASML shipping 44 EUV machines to DRAM in 2028, representing 45% of ASML's EUV shipment — up from 18 units in 2025 ^I.

Revenue and EPS projections: ASML's own 2026 guidance calls for revenue of €34–39 billion, with the midpoint exceeding analyst expectations of €35.1 billion ^F. For 2025, ASML reported €32.7 billion in net sales and EPS of €24.73 ^I. Bernstein's topline increases for 2026 and beyond were described as "material" but specific EPS figures for the new target were not disclosed in public notes ^C.

Valuation multiple: The $2,623 price target implies roughly 48% upside from ASML's prior close ^C. As context, ASML had traded at a trailing P/E of ~60x in early April 2026 (87% premium to sector median) ^CI, though a forward multiple on Bernstein's revised estimates was not explicitly stated. The street-high target significantly exceeds the consensus average of ~$1,669 and the prior high of ~$2,007 ^I.

Market reaction: ASML shares advanced about 3% in premarket trading on July 6 following the target increase ^C. The stock had already gained 123% over the prior year as AI adoption widened ^C.

Broader context of rising analyst confidence

Bernstein's upgrade is the latest in a series of bullish calls on ASML throughout 2026. The firm's own trajectory illustrates how quickly the AI thesis escalated:

• January 2026: Bernstein upgraded ASML to Outperform with a $1,528 target, naming it a top European semiconductor pick for 2026, citing DRAM investment and AI demand ^S.
• January 29, 2026: After ASML's Q4 2025 earnings, Dai raised the target to $1,911, noting that strong results were overshadowed by profit-taking and creating a buying opportunity ^FF.
• March 26, 2026: Target raised further to $1,971 on accelerating DRAM capacity expansion, with the firm estimating DRAM capacity build-out accelerating from 145,000 additional wafers per month in 2025 to 435,000 by 2028 ^II.
• April 2026: UBS and Deutsche Bank also lifted targets to €1,600+ after ASML's Q1 2026 results beat expectations ^P.
• May 2026: BofA raised its target to €1,710, citing stronger Low-NA EUV shipments and raising EPS estimates by up to 14.5% for 2028 ^I.

The consensus across the Street is now unanimously bullish, with every covering analyst rating ASML a buy or strong buy ^C. The driving theme is AI infrastructure — ASML's lithography systems are essential for manufacturing the advanced logic chips and high-bandwidth memory that power AI models, and the pace of capacity investment by both logic foundries and memory makers continues to accelerate ^CS. A key catalyst came on March 24, when SK Hynix disclosed a roughly $8 billion EUV tool purchase from ASML — the largest single EUV commitment publicly disclosed by any ASML customer ².