82% of Global Investors Are Bullish on the Gulf Economy Despite the US-Iran War: Here's Why

A major new international survey from strategy firm Consulum and analytics group HarrisX has delivered a striking verdict: 82% of global investors are confident in the Gulf region's economic future, even as the 2026 US-Iran conflict continues to reshape the Middle East . The message from the global investment community is clear — the Gulf's fundamentals are strong enough to outlast the conflict cycle.

The survey, released in July 2026, gathered insights from over 3,800 respondents across four GCC markets . The findings reveal that international investors are betting heavily on the region's long-term structural strengths — record sovereign wealth fund firepower, accelerating non-oil diversification, and the UAE's emergence as a top-tier global investment destination — even as near-term GDP forecasts have been sharply downgraded.

What the Consulum–HarrisX Survey Reveals

The headline finding from the Consulum–HarrisX survey is unambiguous: 82% of global investors are confident in the Gulf region's economic future despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict . A strong majority expects sustained economic growth, a stronger international role for the GCC, and a negotiated settlement to the current tensions .

Other key findings include:

• ~70% of international investors expect the GCC countries' global economic importance to grow over the next five years .
• 71% of global investors said they want Gulf states directly involved in resolving the conflict — either at the negotiating table (32%) or as behind-the-scenes facilitators (39%) .
• 92% of respondents in the UAE remain confident in the economy, and 91% believe the country is "on the right track" even as conflict-related risks continue .
• A separate Consulum–HarrisX poll in Qatar found that confidence in Qatar's economy and government remains high despite the regional tensions. The Qatar-specific survey was one of the first of its kind conducted after the recent escalation .

Key Driver #1: Record Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment Activity

Gulf sovereign wealth funds have aggressively stepped up dealmaking during the conflict period, defying expectations that the Iran war would subdue their investment appetite. The five biggest spenders — across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar — collectively spent almost $26 billion during March, April, and May 2026, with most of the capital flowing into developed market assets .

This sustained outbound investment signals deep capital reserves and long-term strategic commitment, which reassures international investors about the region's financial stability . Industry specialist Global SWF noted that the funds "have shown no sign of slowdown (yet), with a stronger average pace in the past quarter, than in the five years before the start of the war" .

Gulf sovereign wealth funds accounted for 43% of total global sovereign-wealth-fund spending in 2025, making them dominant players in sectors such as artificial intelligence . The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), and the Emirates' Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Mubadala and ADQ have all ranked among the world's 10 most active sovereign wealth funds for three consecutive years .

Key Driver #2: Economic Diversification and Non-Oil Growth

The Gulf's decades-long push to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons is now producing tangible resilience. GCC economies are expected to remain resilient in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, expanding non-oil sectors, and a broadly stable global economic environment . The World Bank has highlighted that robust non-oil growth is a key structural support, even as the conflict pressures oil-dependent revenue .

Middle East CEOs identify Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt as offering the strongest intra-regional investment potential, with the UAE ranking as the fourth most attractive destination globally for investors (behind only the US, India, and China) according to PwC's Global Investor Survey 2025 . The Kearney FDI Confidence Index 2026 ranked the UAE as the world's most optimistic economy for international investors over the next three years, with a net optimism score of 42%, outpacing Japan (41%) and Canada (39%) . Saudi Arabia also achieved a historic milestone by climbing from 13th to 10th place, entering the global top 10 for the first time .

Key Driver #3: World Bank Growth Projections (Pre-Conflict and Revised)

The World Bank's forecasts for the GCC paint a complex picture — strong underlying momentum that has been partially disrupted by the conflict. Pre-conflict (Fall 2025), the World Bank projected GCC economic growth would accelerate to 4.5% in 2026, driven by the anticipated rollback of OPEC+ oil production cuts and robust non-oil sector expansion .

Post-conflict, the picture is more sobering. The World Bank slashed its 2026 growth forecast for the broader Middle East region from 3.6% to 1.8% in April 2026, reflecting the impact of the Iran conflict . GCC growth was downgraded from 4.4% to just 1.3% . ICAEW and Oxford Economics expect GCC economies to collectively contract by 0.2% in 2026 due to the sharp geopolitical shock .

The IMF has projected steep contractions for individual Gulf states: Qatar at -14.7%, Kuwait at -4.2%, Bahrain at -3.8%, the UAE at -1.9%, and Saudi Arabia at -1.4% . The World Bank noted that Saudi Arabia was better positioned than peers to "absorb the shock" of the conflict .

The key nuance: long-term confidence remains high because investors view the contraction as a temporary geopolitical shock to structurally sound, increasingly diversified economies with deep fiscal buffers.

Sentiment Breakdown by Gulf State

• UAE: The standout performer. Consulum–HarrisX found 92% public confidence in the economy and 91% saying the country is "on the right track" . The Kearney FDI Confidence Index 2026 crowned the UAE the world's most optimistic economy for international investors over the next three years . PwC's Global Investor Survey 2025 ranked the UAE as the fourth most attractive destination globally for investors .

• Qatar: The Consulum–HarrisX survey specifically measured strong confidence in Qatar's economy and government, with 826 respondents from Qatar reflecting continued optimism . 89% of respondents believe Qatar is on the "right track," while 91% said the economy was moving in the right direction . Qatar's massive sovereign wealth fund (QIA) remains a major global dealmaker, though the IMF projects the steepest GDP contraction in the GCC for Qatar at -14.7% due to its LNG exposure .

• Saudi Arabia: Continues to be seen as the region's largest diversification story, with its sovereign wealth fund (PIF) among the top global spenders. Saudi Arabia achieved a historic milestone by entering the global top 10 for FDI confidence for the first time . The World Bank noted Saudi Arabia was better positioned than peers to "absorb the shock" of the conflict .

A Global Capital Realignment

Broader market data reinforces the survey's findings. North American investor confidence actually rose during the Iran war period, with a geopolitical investment index increasing from 118 in 2025 to 132 during the conflict, indicating capital viewed the Gulf as a stable relative haven within the region . European and Asian institutional investors have shown growing allocation interest in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets, with the Gulf benefiting as a key destination within that rebalancing .

Foreign investment into the Gulf region was more resilient than anticipated after the onset of conflict with Iran. Inbound investment remained broadly stable: project counts fell 9.7% against a global rise of 9.8%, yet total capital expenditure held steady at $33.1 billion before the conflict and $32.3 billion after .

Bottom Line

The Consulum–HarrisX survey (82% investor confidence) reveals that international investors are distinguishing between short-term geopolitical disruption and long-term structural strength in the Gulf. The key drivers are record sovereign wealth fund firepower (~$26bn deployed in Q2 2026 alone), accelerating non-oil diversification, strong fiscal buffers, and the UAE's emergence as a top-tier global investment destination . This optimism persists even as near-term GDP forecasts have been sharply downgraded — the dominant view is that the Gulf's fundamentals will outlast the conflict cycle.