What Caused Ethereum's Rebound Above $1,700 in Early July 2026

Technical Positioning: Bounce Off Multi-Year Support

ETH had fallen to near $1,500–$1,550 in mid-to-late June, a level that multiple analysts flagged as critical long-term support ^TB. The price broke above a short-term descending trendline near $1,550 in mid-June and subsequently tested the $1,694–$1,700 resistance zone ^TBC. The macro catalyst in early July finally pushed it through. Wave analysis from FxPro (July 2) confirmed ETH reversed from the strong $1,500 support with an oversold daily Stochastic, targeting the next resistance at $2,000 ^F.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Support Levels:

• $1,550–$1,555 — Near-term support from June lows; oversold daily Stochastic reversal occurred here ^TF
• $1,500 — Multi-year structural support; reversing from this level triggered the current rally ^F

Derivatives Data (as of July 3–4, 2026)

• Aggregate perpetual futures open interest: $19.31B across 37 venues, with Binance the most active at $10.74B in 24h volume and $4.11B in open interest ^L
• CoinGlass data shows ETH open interest at approximately $24.85B on a broader derivatives basis, with the price at $1,758.33 (+1.91% on the day) ^C
• Funding rates range from -9.50 bps to +7.90 bps across exchanges — near neutral, indicating leverage is balanced and not excessively long-biased ^L
• Long/Short ratio sits at 0.9685 (slightly short-biased) on perps markets as of July 1, suggesting cautious positioning among leveraged traders ^C
• Earlier in June, open interest had fallen to a multi-week low of 13.64 million ETH as leveraged traders de-risked after ETH dropped below $1,800 ^M. The current recovery in OI suggests some leveraged re-entry, but volume remains subdued relative to prior rallies

Technical Signals and Caveats

• Bearish structure intact on higher timeframes: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both falling, and the price remains below them, signaling that the long-term trend is still bearish ^FC
• MACD and Aroon indicators were bearish as of mid-June, with sellers still in control even as price approached $1,700 ^B
• Wave analysis from FxPro (July 2) suggests ETH reversed from strong $1,500 support with an oversold daily Stochastic, targeting the next resistance at $2,000 ^F. However, this is a counter-trend bounce within a broader downtrend
• Large holders accumulating: BitMine bought 126,971 ETH during June's weakness, lifting its treasury to 5.54 million tokens — a signal of whale conviction at depressed levels ^B. Yet network usage continues to decline, creating a divergence between on-chain fundamentals and price ^B

Bottom Line

The early-July rebound above $1,700 was a classic macro-driven relief rally — a worse-than-expected jobs report + recovering ETF inflows + a technical bounce off multi-year support. The immediate outlook hinges on whether ETH can hold above the $1,700 resistance-turned-support level. Failure to do so could see a retest of the $1,550 zone, while a successful hold opens a path toward $2,000. However, the structural trend remains bearish as long as price trades below the falling 50/200-day MAs and network activity continues to contract.