On-chain data shows that these outflows are overwhelmingly whale-led, not retail-driven. On Binance, large holders accounted for approximately 91.4% of XRP outflows in early May, while retail comprised only about 8% 2C. This is the highest whale outflow dominance since 2024 C. Analysts characterize the pattern as accumulation-style positioning to cold storage rather than speculative trading BC.
The Binance/Upbit figure is part of a much larger movement. Since June 3, XRP whales have withdrawn over 720 million tokens from exchanges, marking the largest sustained outflow by major holders since early February G. Looking further back, since October 2025, total exchange-held XRP supply has fallen from roughly 3.76 billion to about 1.66 billion tokens — a ~57% decline — driven by ETF custody migration, whale cold storage moves, and Korean exchange withdrawals 2B.
XRP has been oscillating around the $1.06–$1.09 zone in early July TB. This is well below its July 2025 high of approximately $3.65, representing a 64% decline over 12 months 2. The massive outflows from exchanges have not yet produced a sharp price breakout — the price is up modestly but remains range-bound.
The pattern mirrors a November 2024 setup, when Korean exchange outflows preceded a 560% surge, but the current setup is complicated by broader bearish market conditions CB.
| Bullish Indicators | Bearish / Cautious Factors |
|---|---|
| Whales consistently moving XRP off exchanges, reducing liquid supply CB2 | Price still down ~64% from July 2025 highs 2 |
| Spot XRP ETFs attracted $243 million in inflows since April B | XRP previously pulled back after a rebound to $1.30 in mid-June G |
| Binance withdrawals exceeded deposits for seven straight days as of late June B | Broader crypto market continues to exert bearish pressure |
| XRP ledger recorded 4,941 new wallet creations in a single day — strongest daily growth in over three months TC | Reduced exchange liquidity can amplify both upside and downside volatility |
| Pattern mirrors November 2024 setup, when Korean exchange outflows preceded a 560% surge CB | Outflows to cold storage may signal long-term holding, not imminent buying pressure |
The 228M token outflow from Binance and Upbit is part of a much broader, whale-dominated accumulation trend that has pulled hundreds of millions of XRP off exchanges over several months. This sharply reduces the liquid supply available for trading, which is historically a bullish structural setup. However, the price action near $1.06–$1.09 is subdued, reflecting that accumulation alone has not yet triggered a breakout. The market is waiting for a catalyst such as stronger ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, or a broader crypto rally. The signal is directionally bullish on supply dynamics but mixed on timing, with key price levels at $1.00 (support) and $1.30 (recent resistance) GB.