Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Calls: Bitwise vs. Tiger Research on Indicators, Timelines, and Bull Cycle Triggers

Timeline & Conditions for a New Bull Cycle (Bitwise)

Bitwise views Q4 2025 as the trough and expects a rebound in 2026 . The firm argues Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle pattern and reach new all-time highs in 2026 . It identifies the $80k–$85k price range as the key "demarcation line" between bear and bull market; reclaiming this level would signal a trend shift . The conditions for a transition are a sustained break above $80k–$85k, combined with improving macro risk sentiment and continued ETF inflows .

Tiger Research: A Correction Within a Long-Term Uptrend

Tiger Research does not explicitly declare that "the bottom is in." Instead, its valuation framework positions the current bear market as a correction within a still-intact long-term uptrend, with substantial implied upside from current levels .

Key Indicators Cited by Tiger Research

• Macro liquidity (Global M2): Global M2 hit a record $134.4 trillion, cited as a +20% tailwind for Bitcoin .
• Fed policy headwind: Slower rate cuts, after CPI rose to 3.3% following an Iran-linked oil shock, create a -10% drag on valuation .
• On-chain signals moving to neutral: Key on-chain metrics exited the "fear" zone in Q1 2026 and shifted toward "early equilibrium." Buy demand clustered around $84k forms a floor, while $98k acts as short-term resistance (the cost basis for short-term holders) .
• ETF flow reversal: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned net positive again after 14 weeks of outflows .
• Valuation model: A neutral base price derived from on-chain fair value is adjusted by macro (+20%) and fundamental (-10%) factors .

Timeline & Conditions for a New Bull Cycle (Tiger Research)

Tiger Research's 12-month price targets have been revised downward between Q1 and Q2 of 2026:

Tiger Research identifies three conditions for a new bull cycle: a clean break above the $98k resistance (short-term holder cost basis), which it calls the "primary signal for a near-term trend reversal" ; sustained ETF net inflows and continued global M2 expansion ; and on-chain indicators moving fully out of equilibrium into bullish territory .

Unlike Bitwise, Tiger Research does not state that the bottom is already in. Its framework is forward-looking: it argues the current price (in the $70k–$80k range in early-to-mid 2026) offers roughly 2x upside to its 12-month target. However, the Q2 revision downward—from $185.5k to $143k—reflects a slower recovery path due to macro headwinds .

Key Differences Between the Two Calls

Important Caveats

As of mid-2026, Bitcoin has continued to trade around $69k–$70k, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak of $126,296 . Other analysts have not yet confirmed a bottom. Galaxy analyzed 13 indicators historically associated with market bottoms and found only four confirmed, with a base-case bottom between $40k–$46k . NYDIG noted that current metrics are close to the lows of previous cycles but show no signs of final capitulation . CryptoQuant warns the bear market may have begun as early as November 2025 and predicts a bottom between $56k and $60k sometime in 2026 . Bitwise's bottom call remains a minority view in the broader analyst community.