Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Calls: Bitwise vs. Tiger Research on Indicators, Timelines, and Bull Cycle Triggers
Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs. Bitwise identifies the $80k–$85k range as the key bull bear demarcation line; Tiger Research watches the $98k short term holder cos...
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Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs.
Bitwise identifies the $80k–$85k range as the key bull bear demarcation line; Tiger Research watches the $98k short term holder cost basis as the primary trend reversal signal.
Caveat: As of mid 2026, Bitcoin trades near $69k–$70k, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak, and other analysts (Galaxy, NYDIG, CryptoQuant) have not yet confirmed a bottom.
Search & fact-check with cited sources for Based on what major indicators and analyst assessments are Bitcoin bear market bottom calls beingBitwise and Tiger Research have published contrasting bottom calls for Bitcoin's 2025-2026 bear market, citing different indicators and price thresholds.
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Create a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Search & fact-check with cited sources for Based on what major indicators and analyst assessments are Bitcoin bear market bottom calls being. Article summary: Here is the fact-checked breakdown of the bear-market bottom calls from **Bitwise** and **Tiger Research**, based on their published reports.. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clickbait thumbnails, icons, and tiny thumbnail layouts. Make it us
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Two prominent crypto research firms—Bitwise Asset Management and Tiger Research—have published detailed assessments arguing that Bitcoin's 2025–2026 bear market is nearing or has already reached its bottom. While both see a compelling case for a new bull cycle, they rely on different indicators, price levels, and timelines. Here's a fact-checked comparison of their core calls, supported by their published reports.
Bitwise Asset Management: Q4 2025 Was the Trough
Bitwise's core argument is that the fourth quarter of 2025 likely marked the bear-market trough, even though price weakness continued into 2026. The firm expects a rebound sometime in 2026 and new all-time highs that year .
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What is the short answer to "Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Calls: Bitwise vs. Tiger Research on Indicators, Timelines, and Bull Cycle Triggers"?
Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs.
What are the key points to validate first?
Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs. Bitwise identifies the $80k–$85k range as the key bull bear demarcation line; Tiger Research watches the $98k short term holder cost basis as the primary trend reversal signal.
What should I do next in practice?
Caveat: As of mid 2026, Bitcoin trades near $69k–$70k, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak, and other analysts (Galaxy, NYDIG, CryptoQuant) have not yet confirmed a bottom.
Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Calls: Bitwise vs. Tiger Research on Indicators, Timelines, and Bull Cycle Triggers
Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs. Bitwise identifies the $80k–$85k range as the key bull bear demarcation line; Tiger Research watches the $98k short term holder cos...
Published byEdited with DeepSeek-V4-FlashImages generated with GPT Image 1.5
Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs.
Bitwise identifies the $80k–$85k range as the key bull bear demarcation line; Tiger Research watches the $98k short term holder cost basis as the primary trend reversal signal.
Caveat: As of mid 2026, Bitcoin trades near $69k–$70k, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak, and other analysts (Galaxy, NYDIG, CryptoQuant) have not yet confirmed a bottom.
Search & fact-check with cited sources for Based on what major indicators and analyst assessments are Bitcoin bear market bottom calls beingBitwise and Tiger Research have published contrasting bottom calls for Bitcoin's 2025-2026 bear market, citing different indicators and price thresholds.
AI Prompt
Create a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Search & fact-check with cited sources for Based on what major indicators and analyst assessments are Bitcoin bear market bottom calls being. Article summary: Here is the fact-checked breakdown of the bear-market bottom calls from **Bitwise** and **Tiger Research**, based on their published reports.. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clickbait thumbnails, icons, and tiny thumbnail layouts. Make it us
openai.com
Two prominent crypto research firms—Bitwise Asset Management and Tiger Research—have published detailed assessments arguing that Bitcoin's 2025–2026 bear market is nearing or has already reached its bottom. While both see a compelling case for a new bull cycle, they rely on different indicators, price levels, and timelines. Here's a fact-checked comparison of their core calls, supported by their published reports.
Bitwise Asset Management: Q4 2025 Was the Trough
Bitwise's core argument is that the fourth quarter of 2025 likely marked the bear-market trough, even though price weakness continued into 2026. The firm expects a rebound sometime in 2026 and new all-time highs that year .
Studio Global AI
Continue your research
This page includes a source-backed answer you can continue inside Studio Global.
What is the short answer to "Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Calls: Bitwise vs. Tiger Research on Indicators, Timelines, and Bull Cycle Triggers"?
Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs.
What are the key points to validate first?
Bitwise calls Q4 2025 the bear market trough based on a historic divergence between falling prices and rising on chain fundamentals, expecting a rebound in 2026 with new all time highs. Bitwise identifies the $80k–$85k range as the key bull bear demarcation line; Tiger Research watches the $98k short term holder cost basis as the primary trend reversal signal.
What should I do next in practice?
Caveat: As of mid 2026, Bitcoin trades near $69k–$70k, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak, and other analysts (Galaxy, NYDIG, CryptoQuant) have not yet confirmed a bottom.
Price-to-fundamentals divergence: During Q4 2025, ETH fell 29% while Ethereum transaction volumes hit all-time highs. Crypto equities dropped 20% even as crypto-company revenues grew 3x faster than costs. DeFi usage and stablecoin supply both expanded as prices declined . Bitwise calls this historic tension a classic bear-market-bottom signal .
On-chain accumulation: Rising realized capitalization and stablecoin supply above $300 billion pointed to quiet accumulation despite muted prices .
2023-style setup: CIO Matt Hougan said Q4 2025 price weakness mirrored early 2023, which preceded the subsequent recovery .
ETF demand cushion: Hougan estimated that roughly $75 billion in demand from spot-ETF and corporate-treasury buyers was the main factor preventing a deeper selloff .
Timeline & Conditions for a New Bull Cycle (Bitwise)
Bitwise views Q4 2025 as the trough and expects a rebound in 2026 . The firm argues Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle pattern and reach new all-time highs in 2026 . It identifies the $80k–$85k price range as the key "demarcation line" between bear and bull market; reclaiming this level would signal a trend shift . The conditions for a transition are a sustained break above $80k–$85k, combined with improving macro risk sentiment and continued ETF inflows .
Tiger Research: A Correction Within a Long-Term Uptrend
Tiger Research does not explicitly declare that "the bottom is in." Instead, its valuation framework positions the current bear market as a correction within a still-intact long-term uptrend, with substantial implied upside from current levels .
Key Indicators Cited by Tiger Research
Macro liquidity (Global M2): Global M2 hit a record $134.4 trillion, cited as a +20% tailwind for Bitcoin .
Fed policy headwind: Slower rate cuts, after CPI rose to 3.3% following an Iran-linked oil shock, create a -10% drag on valuation .
On-chain signals moving to neutral: Key on-chain metrics exited the "fear" zone in Q1 2026 and shifted toward "early equilibrium." Buy demand clustered around $84k forms a floor, while $98k acts as short-term resistance (the cost basis for short-term holders) .
ETF flow reversal: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned net positive again after 14 weeks of outflows .
Valuation model: A neutral base price derived from on-chain fair value is adjusted by macro (+20%) and fundamental (-10%) factors .
Timeline & Conditions for a New Bull Cycle (Tiger Research)
Tiger Research's 12-month price targets have been revised downward between Q1 and Q2 of 2026:
Report Period
12-Month Price Target
Neutral Base
Macro Adj.
Fundamental Adj.
Q1 2026 report (Jan 2026)
$185,500
$145,000
+25%
0%
Q2 2026 report (Apr 2026)
$143,000 (revised down)
$132,500
+20%
-10%
Tiger Research identifies three conditions for a new bull cycle: a clean break above the $98k resistance (short-term holder cost basis), which it calls the "primary signal for a near-term trend reversal" ; sustained ETF net inflows and continued global M2 expansion ; and on-chain indicators moving fully out of equilibrium into bullish territory .
Unlike Bitwise, Tiger Research does not state that the bottom is already in. Its framework is forward-looking: it argues the current price (in the $70k–$80k range in early-to-mid 2026) offers roughly 2x upside to its 12-month target. However, the Q2 revision downward—from $185.5k to $143k—reflects a slower recovery path due to macro headwinds .
Key Differences Between the Two Calls
Aspect
Bitwise
Tiger Research
Bottom declaration
Q4 2025 was the bottom; rebound in 2026
Does not explicitly call a bottom; model implies current prices are well below fair value
Key framework
Price/fundamentals divergence, 2023 analogy
Macro liquidity (M2) + on-chain equilibrium model
Bull trigger price
Sustained break above $80k–$85k
Break above $98k resistance
Price target
New all-time highs in 2026 (no specific number stated)
$143k (Q2 2026 report) to $185.5k (Q1 2026 report)
Important Caveats
As of mid-2026, Bitcoin has continued to trade around $69k–$70k, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak of $126,296 . Other analysts have not yet confirmed a bottom. Galaxy analyzed 13 indicators historically associated with market bottoms and found only four confirmed, with a base-case bottom between $40k–$46k . NYDIG noted that current metrics are close to the lows of previous cycles but show no signs of final capitulation . CryptoQuant warns the bear market may have begun as early as November 2025 and predicts a bottom between $56k and $60k sometime in 2026 . Bitwise's bottom call remains a minority view in the broader analyst community.
Price-to-fundamentals divergence: During Q4 2025, ETH fell 29% while Ethereum transaction volumes hit all-time highs. Crypto equities dropped 20% even as crypto-company revenues grew 3x faster than costs. DeFi usage and stablecoin supply both expanded as prices declined . Bitwise calls this historic tension a classic bear-market-bottom signal .
On-chain accumulation: Rising realized capitalization and stablecoin supply above $300 billion pointed to quiet accumulation despite muted prices .
2023-style setup: CIO Matt Hougan said Q4 2025 price weakness mirrored early 2023, which preceded the subsequent recovery .
ETF demand cushion: Hougan estimated that roughly $75 billion in demand from spot-ETF and corporate-treasury buyers was the main factor preventing a deeper selloff .
Timeline & Conditions for a New Bull Cycle (Bitwise)
Bitwise views Q4 2025 as the trough and expects a rebound in 2026 . The firm argues Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle pattern and reach new all-time highs in 2026 . It identifies the $80k–$85k price range as the key "demarcation line" between bear and bull market; reclaiming this level would signal a trend shift . The conditions for a transition are a sustained break above $80k–$85k, combined with improving macro risk sentiment and continued ETF inflows .
Tiger Research: A Correction Within a Long-Term Uptrend
Tiger Research does not explicitly declare that "the bottom is in." Instead, its valuation framework positions the current bear market as a correction within a still-intact long-term uptrend, with substantial implied upside from current levels .
Key Indicators Cited by Tiger Research
Macro liquidity (Global M2): Global M2 hit a record $134.4 trillion, cited as a +20% tailwind for Bitcoin .
Fed policy headwind: Slower rate cuts, after CPI rose to 3.3% following an Iran-linked oil shock, create a -10% drag on valuation .
On-chain signals moving to neutral: Key on-chain metrics exited the "fear" zone in Q1 2026 and shifted toward "early equilibrium." Buy demand clustered around $84k forms a floor, while $98k acts as short-term resistance (the cost basis for short-term holders) .
ETF flow reversal: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned net positive again after 14 weeks of outflows .
Valuation model: A neutral base price derived from on-chain fair value is adjusted by macro (+20%) and fundamental (-10%) factors .
Timeline & Conditions for a New Bull Cycle (Tiger Research)
Tiger Research's 12-month price targets have been revised downward between Q1 and Q2 of 2026:
Report Period
12-Month Price Target
Neutral Base
Macro Adj.
Fundamental Adj.
Q1 2026 report (Jan 2026)
$185,500
$145,000
+25%
0%
Q2 2026 report (Apr 2026)
$143,000 (revised down)
$132,500
+20%
-10%
Tiger Research identifies three conditions for a new bull cycle: a clean break above the $98k resistance (short-term holder cost basis), which it calls the "primary signal for a near-term trend reversal" ; sustained ETF net inflows and continued global M2 expansion ; and on-chain indicators moving fully out of equilibrium into bullish territory .
Unlike Bitwise, Tiger Research does not state that the bottom is already in. Its framework is forward-looking: it argues the current price (in the $70k–$80k range in early-to-mid 2026) offers roughly 2x upside to its 12-month target. However, the Q2 revision downward—from $185.5k to $143k—reflects a slower recovery path due to macro headwinds .
Key Differences Between the Two Calls
Aspect
Bitwise
Tiger Research
Bottom declaration
Q4 2025 was the bottom; rebound in 2026
Does not explicitly call a bottom; model implies current prices are well below fair value
Key framework
Price/fundamentals divergence, 2023 analogy
Macro liquidity (M2) + on-chain equilibrium model
Bull trigger price
Sustained break above $80k–$85k
Break above $98k resistance
Price target
New all-time highs in 2026 (no specific number stated)
$143k (Q2 2026 report) to $185.5k (Q1 2026 report)
Important Caveats
As of mid-2026, Bitcoin has continued to trade around $69k–$70k, roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak of $126,296 . Other analysts have not yet confirmed a bottom. Galaxy analyzed 13 indicators historically associated with market bottoms and found only four confirmed, with a base-case bottom between $40k–$46k . NYDIG noted that current metrics are close to the lows of previous cycles but show no signs of final capitulation . CryptoQuant warns the bear market may have begun as early as November 2025 and predicts a bottom between $56k and $60k sometime in 2026 . Bitwise's bottom call remains a minority view in the broader analyst community.
