Mizuho Projects TSMC CoWoS Capacity Reaching 200K Wafers Per Month by 2027 as AI Demand Surges

Mizuho's 190,000–200,000 wpm for 2027 makes it one of the most bullish analysts on the Street for that timeframe.

Which Customers Are Driving CoWoS Demand?

Demand is highly concentrated among a few dominant players.

• NVIDIA is the dominant customer, accounting for roughly 65% of TSMC's CoWoS capacity allocation. KGI estimates NVIDIA will consume about 65% of TSMC's CoWoS capacity, followed by Broadcom and AMD . Mizuho projects NVIDIA's CoWoS units at TSMC reaching 630,000 in 2026 and 1,005,000 in 2027, driven by demand for NVIDIA's Vera CPU and stronger production of other AI accelerators .
• Broadcom and AMD are the next-largest customers .
• Hyperscalers (Amazon AWS, Google, Meta, Microsoft) are also significant consumers via custom ASICs, and all face allocation constraints .
• MediaTek and Alchip are emerging names to watch in TSMC's 2026–2027 client mix .

An estimated 85%+ of TSMC's 2026–2027 CoWoS capacity is already pre-allocated to just four major players: NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, and the hyperscalers . Silicon Analysts reports that NVIDIA alone is estimated to hold roughly 60% of CoWoS capacity, about 595,000 wafers . This has created a situation where second-tier AI chip companies are effectively blocked from accessing capacity until later .

Current Supply-Demand Gap and Lead Times

The Gap is Narrowing, but Remains Significant

The supply-demand gap for CoWoS capacity is currently around ~20% (demand exceeding supply) and is expected to narrow to ~10% by the end of 2026 as new capacity comes online . Earlier estimates from mid-2025 pegged the shortfall at 30%+, with capacity at ~115K wpm versus demand exceeding 180K wpm .

TSMC CEO C.C. Wei has stated that CoWoS is "sold out through 2025 and into 2026" . The gap is expected to improve further into 2027 as fabs like AP7 in Chiayi, Taiwan begin production, with phase 1 construction expected to be completed in 2026 and production commencing in late 2027 and 2028 .

Lead Times Remain Long

CoWoS-S and CoWoS-L remain fully booked with lead times of approximately 52–78 weeks (roughly 12–18 months) . The structural bottleneck persists because new capacity takes 12–18 months to build out . As one analysis notes, "Lead time rising or flat while capacity grows = demand is still outrunning supply; the shortage persists regardless of expansion headlines" .

Status of TSMC's Next-Generation CoPoS Panel-Level Packaging

CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate) is TSMC's next-generation 2.5D advanced packaging platform that shifts from round 300mm wafers to rectangular 310mm × 310mm panels (scalable to 515mm × 510mm or larger), promising lower costs and better utilization of substrate area .

Pilot Line Status

A CoPoS pilot line is already in place as of mid-2026. Equipment deliveries to R&D teams began in February 2026, with full pilot line completion achieved by June 2026 . TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei reaffirmed at the shareholders' meeting in early June 2026 that the pilot line is operational . The pilot line at VisEra's Longtan plant is running a dual-track evaluation, with one line led by major global equipment vendors and the other adopting solutions from Taiwanese equipment makers .

Mass Production Timeline

Mass production is expected in 2–3 years, according to Chairman Wei . Multiple sources point to 2029 as the target for volume production . TrendForce reports that pilot production is targeted for 2027, with mass production slated for the second half of 2028 . DigiTimes also reports that mass production is not expected before 2029 .

Key Caveat

CoPoS is still in the early pilot phase and will not meaningfully contribute to TSMC's CoWoS-equivalent capacity until 2028–2029 at the earliest. In the near term (2026–2027), all advanced packaging growth relies on traditional CoWoS line expansions.