Central Banks Turn on the Dollar: OMFIF Survey Reveals Historic Shift Toward Gold, Euro, and Yuan

For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the undisputed king of global reserve currencies. But the latest surveys from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) signal a historic inflection point: for the first time, more central banks plan to reduce their dollar holdings than increase them over the next decade. The shift is gradual but unmistakable, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and a quiet but persistent move toward a more multipolar system.

Historic Shift: More Central Banks Plan to Cut Dollars Than Add Them

In a finding that OMFIF calls a first since it began tracking central bank investment intentions, more reserve managers now plan to decrease their U.S. dollar exposure than increase it over the coming decade . This marks a clear break from the past and reflects a growing perception that the U.S. currency carries heightened political and geopolitical risk .

The 2026 OMFIF survey underscores the point: geopolitical tensions are now the single most significant risk facing reserve managers. Among central banks that factor geopolitical risks into their asset allocation, 82.6% made changes in the past 12 months — up sharply from 72.6% in 2025 and 53.6% in 2024 .

Where Reserves Are Going: Gold, Euro, and Renminbi

As the dollar's appeal fades, three alternatives are emerging as the primary beneficiaries:

• Gold — Central banks have been steadily increasing their gold holdings. The 2025 OMFIF survey found that demand for gold was even stronger than for any single currency, making it the top choice for diversification . Reuters and CNN report that gold purchases are expected to accelerate further as political uncertainty persists .
• Euro — Close behind gold, a net 16% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their euro allocations over the next two years, up from 7% in the previous year . The euro is seen as the most likely currency to benefit from global macroeconomic shifts .
• Renminbi (yuan) — Reserve managers expect to increase renminbi holdings, but the shift will be gradual. The 2026 Central Banking survey found that 91.8% of respondents expect the renminbi's share of global reserves to reach 4% or higher by 2035, though one-third still do not plan to invest in it at all by then .
• Smaller developed-market currencies — The OMFIF 2025 report notes that diversification extends beyond the major alternatives, with smaller developed-market currencies also seeing increased interest as central banks broaden their reserve baskets .

The Quiet, Persistent Theme of Multipolarity

The surveys consistently show that reserve managers believe the world is transitioning away from a dollar-centric system toward a more multipolar arrangement. The OMFIF report characterizes diversification as a "quiet, persistent theme" that is no longer questioned but is now embedded in reserve management strategy . Nearly 60% of respondents to the 2025 GPI survey said they plan to diversify within the next one to two years .

Dollar's Continued but Diminished Dominance

Despite the historic shift, the dollar is not expected to be dethroned anytime soon. Nearly 80% of respondents to the UBS Reserve Manager Survey (conducted alongside OMFIF) still expect the dollar to remain the dominant reserve currency in the foreseeable future . However, the average forecast from the OMFIF survey is that the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves will decline from 58% today to 52% by 2035 . This confirms a gradual erosion: the dollar stays on top, but its margin is shrinking steadily in favor of a more diversified, multipolar reserve system .

Key caveat: The 58%-to-52% projection comes from the 2025 OMFIF survey (published June 2025). The 2026 survey (published June 30, 2026) reinforces the directional trend of de-dollarization but does not appear to have issued a new specific numerical forecast for 2035. The 52% figure remains the most recent OMFIF-sourced projection.