Inside Pakistan's June 2026 Cross-Border Strikes: The Karachi Attack, the 'Open War', and the Collapse of the 2025 Ceasefire

• Pakistan's account: 29 militants killed (4 in Bajaur, 25 in the cross-border strikes) .
• Afghanistan's account: The Taliban government condemned the operation as a "cowardly act" and reported at least 36 civilians killed and 163 wounded — figures that directly contradict Pakistan's claim that only fighters were hit .
• Pakistan's justification: Islamabad accused elements inside Afghanistan — specifically the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the affiliated Jamaat-ul-Ahrar faction — of orchestrating the Karachi attack and using Afghan soil as a safe haven .

India's Response to Pakistan's Accusations

In the aftermath of both the Karachi attack and the cross-border strikes, Pakistani officials alleged that the attack was carried out by an "Indian proxy" . The accusation fits a long-standing pattern: Pakistan has repeatedly claimed India is supporting militant groups operating from Afghan territory against Pakistan .

India's response was swift and unequivocal. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal called the allegations "baseless" and told Pakistani authorities to "look inwards" and take credible action against terror infrastructure on its own soil instead of blaming others .

India also condemned the cross-border strikes themselves. At the United Nations on June 9, 2026, India accused Pakistan of violating Afghan sovereignty and causing civilian casualties . Earlier in the conflict, India described Pakistan's airstrikes as an attempt to "externalise its internal shortcomings" .

Important caveat: These are statements from the Indian government. There is no independent public evidence that confirms or disproves Pakistan's specific claim of an Indian proxy in the Karachi attack. The allegation remains disputed.

The Fraying of the 2025 Ceasefire: A Timeline

The June 2026 strikes cannot be understood in isolation. They are the latest and one of the largest flare-ups in a conflict that has escalated steadily since a negotiated ceasefire fell apart.

October 2025: A Fragile Truce

After some of the deadliest border clashes in years, a ceasefire was brokered by Turkey and Qatar in late October 2025. Both sides agreed to extend it through talks in Istanbul that included a monitoring and verification mechanism .

November 2025: Peace Talks Collapse

The talks failed almost immediately. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid announced on November 8 that negotiations had broken down, primarily because Pakistan insisted the Afghan Taliban take action against the TTP — a demand Kabul rejected as exceeding its "capability" . The ceasefire held on paper but became increasingly hollow.

February 2026: 'Open War' Declared

The truce shattered violently on February 26–27, when Pakistan launched airstrikes on Taliban military installations in Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia, calling it retaliation for TTP cross-border attacks. Pakistan's defense minister, Khawaja Asif, publicly declared that the nations were now in "open war" . Afghanistan retaliated with border fire and its own strikes .

March–May 2026: Periodic Violence

A brief truce in March, announced ahead of Eid al-Fitr, expired and was followed by renewed fighting that killed at least two civilians in Kunar . A major TTP attack on a Pakistani security outpost in May killed multiple paramilitary personnel, further eroding any remaining restraint .

June 19, 2026: Afghanistan Strikes Pakistan

Days before the Karachi attack, Afghanistan launched air assaults on what it called militant hideouts and "hostile intelligence entities" inside Pakistan, raising tensions to a new peak .

June 28–29, 2026: The Current Strikes

Pakistan's ground operation and precision strikes killing 29 militants represent the largest single cross-border operation since February's 'open war' declaration .

Key Takeaway

The 2025 ceasefire never produced a political settlement. It began fraying almost immediately after talks collapsed in November 2025, was violently broken in February 2026, and has been replaced by a cycle of escalating raids and retaliations. The June 2026 strikes are not an isolated incident — they are the continuation of a pattern that shows no sign of de-escalation.