XRP Ledger Activity Surges 72% — Why Price Isn't Following

The XRP Ledger is flashing two completely different signals at once. On one hand, on-chain activity exploded: daily active addresses jumped 71.7% over two weeks to more than 39,500, whale wallets hit record levels, and Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin crossed a symbolic milestone by overtaking Ethereum in hosted supply . On the other hand, XRP's price is testing support near $1.05 — down 43% year-to-date and 64% below its July 2025 cycle high of $3.66 .

Here is what is actually driving the numbers and whether the on-chain strength can eventually pull price higher.

The Surge is Real — But It's an RLUSD Story

The 72% spike in daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger, reported by Santiment and analyst Ali Martinez on June 28, 2026, took the metric from roughly 23,000 to over 39,500 addresses . This sounds like a classic network-growth catalyst.

The source, however, is mostly stablecoin infrastructure. On June 25, 2026, the XRP Ledger overtook Ethereum as the largest host of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin for the first time, with approximately $802 million on XRPL versus $793 million on Ethereum . This margin was slim — roughly $6 million — but it marked a structural shift. Just days earlier, in mid-June, Ethereum still held about 53% of RLUSD supply ($879 million vs. $760 million on XRPL) .

This stablecoin activity generates a specific pattern: AccountSet transactions, minting and burning events, and DEX operations tied to RLUSD create wallet interactions without involving the XRP token itself. Daily transaction volume on XRPL surged to nearly 3 million in April 2026, roughly triple the ~1 million recorded in mid-2025, driven primarily by this plumbing .

Key takeaway: These are users interacting with the stablecoin, not necessarily buying XRP. It explains the sharp decoupling between on-chain activity and spot price.

Whale Accumulation Reaches Record Levels — But No Breakout

The divergence becomes even starker when looking at large holder behavior. Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP reached a record 332,230 addresses, according to Santiment, continuing an accumulation trend that began in June 2024 . Whales holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP added 920 million coins, lifting their combined balance to 11.79 billion XRP .

On the highest end of the spectrum, wallets holding at least 10 million XRP now control approximately 45.83 billion XRP — roughly 68.5% of circulating supply, the largest concentration since May 2018 .

Accumulation at record levels alongside a price at multi-month lows usually signals one of two things: either these are strategic long-term holders buying the dip, or the wallets are not speculative buyers at all. The RLUSD ecosystem — which requires XRP for transaction fees and reserve requirements — may be inflating the "whale" count as stablecoin operators set up wallets. This remains an open question, but the price action has not confirmed the bullish signal that accumulation alone would typically imply.

Technical Picture: Bearish Structure Overrules On-Chain Strength

While on-chain data looks robust, XRP's chart tells a different story. The token trades at approximately $1.05, down 8% in the past week alone and 43% year-to-date . It sits below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages — a textbook bearish configuration .

Analyst Ali Martinez has identified $1.06 as a critical support level. A breakdown below it could expose $0.80, $0.62, or even $0.51 . Other analysts see a potential drop to $0.54, roughly 60% below current levels . The broader trend is grim: XRP has recorded six consecutive months of losses, erasing all gains made in the 2024–2025 cycle .

A reclaim of $1.10 would be needed to suggest a potential double-bottom reversal, but buying pressure has not been strong enough to achieve that so far .

The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case

The central tension in XRP right now is between accumulating fundamentals and deteriorating price structure.

Bull case: Record whale accumulation, declining exchange reserves (suggesting supply is moving to cold storage), RLUSD ecosystem growth bringing new users to XRPL, and spot ETF inflows create a supply-squeeze setup that could force price higher over time.

Bear case: The active address surge is mostly stablecoin plumbing, not organic XRP demand. Price has broken all key moving averages, RSI is near oversold territory, and macro conditions remain unfavorable. The $1.06 level is described as the "last line of defense" before a move to $0.80–$0.75 .

The bottom line: On-chain metrics are strong, but they are measuring the wrong thing for a price rally. Until RLUSD-related activity translates into net buying pressure for XRP, or until the token reclaims the $1.10 level decisively, the bearish structure remains in control.

Market probabilities cited in the original question (Polymarket odds of 78% probability of staying above $1, 21% for above $1.10; RSI of 30.79; specific Binance reserve figures; spot ETF inflow data) could not be independently verified within the search budget and should be cross-checked against live data sources.