Bitcoin's Record Capitulation: Why 54% of All BTC Is Now Held at a Loss

By late June 2026, the Bitcoin bear market had reached a grim milestone: more than half of all circulating Bitcoin was held at an unrealized loss. On June 25, Glassnode data logged 10.83 million BTC (~54% of the ~20 million circulating supply) underwater—an all-time high that eclipsed the previous peaks around 10.5 million BTC recorded during the cycle bottoms of 2019, 2020, and 2022 .

This record was not an isolated statistic. It occurred because Bitcoin's price had fallen more than 50% from its all-time high near $126,198 set in October 2025, pulling almost every cost basis below market price and triggering widespread capitulation across holders, institutional products, and on-chain metrics. Here is the full, evidence-backed picture of what happened—and the key indicators that define this bear market.

The Core Driver: Price Decline and Record Supply in Loss

The immediate cause was simple arithmetic. On June 24, 2026, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the third time that year, briefly touching $59,023.98—its lowest level since October 2024 . By June 25, Bitcoin traded near $59,100, and the on-chain damage was immediate. Glassnode's Total Supply in Loss metric, which counts every coin whose last on-chain movement occurred at a higher price than today's, surged to a record 10.83 million BTC .

On June 4, even before the deepest dip, coins in loss (~10.5 million) had already outpaced coins in profit (~9.8 million) for the first time in the cycle, as BTC hovered near $61,300 . By June 10, CryptoQuant-based analysis showed roughly 51.6% of all BTC supply was in loss, a capitulation-style jump from about 34% just a month earlier .

Long-Term Holders Now Carry Deep Losses

Perhaps the most telling signal of stress came from Bitcoin's most resilient cohort: long-term holders (LTHs), defined by Glassnode as addresses that have held coins for at least 155 days. By June 25, LTHs held 5.58 million BTC at a loss, the second-highest figure in history, trailing only the March 2020 COVID-19 crash peak of ~5.6 million .

This is a cohort that typically holds through volatility. To see them sitting on this much underwater supply—especially when total LTH holdings reached a record 14.8 million BTC (roughly 75% of circulating supply)—underscores how broad the price decline has been . Earlier in June, the figure stood at 5.3 million BTC, meaning the number increased as the price fell deeper into the month .

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): Selling at a Loss for Half the Year

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether coins being moved are doing so at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1.0 means the average coin was sold for a profit; below 1.0 means it was sold at a loss.

According to KuCoin, Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder SOPR (30-day average) stood at 0.88 as of late June, well below the break-even line of 1.0 . More striking: it has printed below 1.0 on 87 of the 176 trading days in 2026 so far, in two distinct stretches: February 24 to April 27, and then continuously since June 2 (a 24-session run as of June 26) .

VanEck's mid-June ChainCheck added a layer of detail: realized losses jumped +78% month-over-month to $714 million, while realized profit collapsed -57% to $194 million, pulling the realized profit/loss ratio well below 1.0 .