Bitcoin Bear-Market Bottom Could Hit $42,000–$44,000 by Late 2026, Says Top Chinese Miner

In late June 2026, with Bitcoin trading near $62,000—roughly 51% below its all-time high above $126,000 from October 2025—one of China's best-known miners made a striking call: the final bottom of this bear market lies between $42,000 and $44,000, arriving in the fourth quarter of 2026 .

Jiang Zhuoer, co-founder of BTC.TOP and founder of LeBit/LexFi Mining Pool, laid out a forecast that has since drawn widespread attention. His mathematical model targets October 31, 2026, at $44,016 as the most precise bottom date, with a broader range of $42,000–$44,000 .

Here is the model behind the prediction, how it compares to other major analysts, the broader market conditions that support it, and what it means for miners and long-term holders.

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The Three Pillars of Jiang Zhuoer's Model

Jiang's prediction is not a pure on-chain or technical analysis. He frames it as a "cycle forecast based on market valuation, miner-cycle experience, and a key measure of a listed company's stock" . The model rests on three main elements:

1. Strategy's mNAV Ratio (primary signal). The market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR) has fallen to 0.72, approaching the 0.7 level seen during the May 2022 bear-market lows . Jiang treats this as a sentiment indicator that tracks extreme fear in the equities-linked Bitcoin proxy.

2. Six-month lag between mNAV and BTC bottoms. Based on historical cycle analysis, Jiang observes that Bitcoin's price bottom tends to lag Strategy's mNAV low by roughly six months. Since mNAV is nearing its floor now (mid-2026), BTC's price bottom would follow in Q4 2026 . This timing is key to his October–December 2026 window.

3. Four-year cycle framework. Jiang incorporates the Bitcoin halving cycle and his own miner-cycle experience to calibrate the timing, noting that market cycles suggest the bottom is still ahead rather than already in .

Importantly, Jiang's forecast is based less on Bitcoin's own on-chain metrics than on the behavior of a single stock proxy—which is both its strength (as a market-sentiment gauge) and its limitation.

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How Jiang's Forecast Compares to Other Analyst Predictions

Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) — On June 23–24, 2026, Hayes predicted Bitcoin could bottom near $40,000 within six months. He established a put-spread hedge to protect against short-term downside while keeping core long positions intact, and reiterated a bullish year-end target . His $40,000 call closely overlaps Jiang's $42,000–$44,000 range . Earlier in the cycle, Hayes had called a bottom at $60,000, but later revised lower . His long-term vision remains strongly bullish, targeting $250,000 or higher by year-end.

Michael Saylor (Strategy executive chairman) — Saylor has maintained a far more bullish stance, with a long-term target of $1 million per BTC, though this is not a near-term bear-market floor call .

CoinShares analysts — Their March 2026 report warned that if BTC fails to reclaim $100,000 by year-end, high-cost miners will face accelerated exits and further price pressure . This is broadly consistent with Jiang's bearish outlook, though CoinShares did not give a specific floor number. They forecast global hash rate to rebound to 1.8 ZH/s by end-2026, suggesting they see mining industry resilience despite near-term pain .

The consensus among bearish voices clusters around $40,000–$44,000 as a possible bottom zone, making Jiang's forecast broadly aligned with the most cautious camp. More optimistic analysts, including Hayes himself over the longer term, see much higher prices later in the cycle.

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Broader Market Conditions: Miner Capitulation Is Already Underway

Miner capitulation—the forced exit of operators due to unprofitability—has been confirmed by multiple research sources.

Galaxy Research confirmed on June 21, 2026 that Bitcoin miners have entered a capitulation phase. Mining difficulty has dropped more than 20% from its all-time high, and roughly 20% of network hashrate is operating below break-even at current prices .

The hash price—the revenue miners earn per unit of computing power—has fallen below $34 per PH/s/day, a five-year low, meaning many miners lose money on every BTC they produce . Multiple consecutive difficulty reductions, the first such streak since July 2022, signaled that miners are turning off machines at a historic pace . The largest single-epoch difficulty drop of the year came on February 7, 2026 at -11.16%—the biggest since China's 2021 mining ban .

The trigger for the squeeze is the post-halving environment: Bitcoin's price (near $70,000 in early 2026) sat below the all-in cost of mining for most operators, who faced average costs of $83,000–$87,000 per coin . Rising energy costs, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, have further squeezed margins .

Bitcoin's current ATH of ~$126,000 was set in October 2025. The subsequent drawdown to ~$62,000 by June 2026 has been driven by a combination of miner selling pressure, declining liquidity, and weak market sentiment .

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Implications for Miners and Long-Term Holders

For miners:

• If Jiang is correct, the worst is still ahead. Miners operating at elevated cost bases face further margin compression before the Q4 2026 floor is reached.
• The ongoing difficulty reset (down 20%+) will eventually force the weakest operators offline, which is a natural bear-market cleansing mechanism. Survivors with low power costs and efficient hardware will emerge stronger .
• Historical patterns suggest miner capitulation ends near major price bottoms, which aligns with Jiang's Q4 2026 call . The shutdown price for the most advanced rigs (e.g., S23 models) is estimated at $36,000–$38,000, meaning even efficient miners could be near break-even at Jiang's projected bottom .
• CoinShares has flagged that high-cost miners will face accelerated exits if BTC fails to reclaim $100,000, while operators with extremely low energy costs or successful cross-industry AI pivots could dominate future capital markets .

For long-term holders:

• A drop to $42,000–$44,000 would represent roughly another 30% downside from June 2026 levels (~$62,000) .
• Jiang's model suggests the final flush could come in a relatively compressed window (Oct–Dec 2026), which risk-aware long-term holders could use for accumulation if they have conviction in the cycle framework.
• However, the forecast is one miner's opinion based on a single stock metric (MSTR mNAV), not a consensus fundamental view. It should be weighed against other indicators like on-chain realized price, hash ribbons, and macro liquidity conditions.
• If the $40,000–$44,000 zone holds, it would mark a ~65–67% drawdown from the ATH—broadly in line with previous Bitcoin bear market retracements (~70–85% in 2014, 2018, and 2022).
• Arthur Hayes, while predicting a similar bottom, also sees a strong recovery: he targets $125,000 by end of 2026, citing returning liquidity and Fed policy shifts . This suggests that even the most bearish near-term forecasters see the current cycle as survivable for disciplined holders.

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In summary, Jiang Zhuoer's $42,000–$44,000 bottom call is the most prominent miner-led forecast of the current cycle. It aligns with the broader bearish consensus among analysts like Arthur Hayes, fits within historical drawdown patterns, and is supported by the ongoing miner capitulation data. But it is not a certainty—it is a single model based on a corporate stock metric, and the actual floor could differ depending on macro liquidity, geopolitical shocks, and whether the mining capitulation resolves faster or slower than historical patterns suggest.