AMD EPYC Venice vs. Nvidia Vera: Morgan Stanley Forecasts a 17% CPU Shipment Lead by 2027

Morgan Stanley's June 25 research report has quantified a dramatic shift in the server CPU market: AMD's next-generation EPYC Venice processors are forecast to ship 6.75 million units in 2027, significantly outpacing Nvidia's Vera CPUs at 5.75 million units. This represents a roughly 17% lead for AMD and signals a major escalation in the competition between the two semiconductor giants for data center dominance. The report also highlights TSMC as a critical beneficiary, with its advanced CoWoS packaging capacity expected to surge to meet soaring demand.

The Core Forecast: AMD EPYC Venice vs. Nvidia Vera Shipments

Morgan Stanley's central projection is that AMD's EPYC Venice processors will ship 6.75 million units in 2027, compared to 5.75 million units for Nvidia's Vera CPUs . This puts AMD ahead by about 1 million units, or approximately 17% . The growth trajectory for Venice is steep, with shipments forecast to jump from an estimated 1.25 million units in 2026 as TSMC's 2nm and CoWoS packaging capacity constraints ease .

• AMD EPYC Venice is built on the new Zen 6 architecture and manufactured on TSMC's advanced 2nm-class process. It scales up to 256 cores and 512 threads and is positioned as a leader for both AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads .
• Nvidia's Vera CPU is a newer product, sold as part of Nvidia's rack-scale offerings. Built on a 3nm process and optimized for agentic AI workloads, it is projected to grow quickly but ultimately trail Venice in unit volume in 2027 .

Implications for Server CPU Market Share

This forecast positions AMD to take the volume lead in a direct CPU comparison, a significant achievement given Nvidia's rapid entry into the CPU market. The key dynamic is that AMD's EPYC Venice represents the next generation of a mature, highly successful server CPU line, while Nvidia's Vera is a relatively new entrant . The data suggests that AMD's long-standing EPYC ecosystem and architectural roadmap provide a competitive advantage in shipping volume.

Nvidia's Data Center Revenue and CoWoS Dominance

Despite trailing in this specific CPU unit forecast, Nvidia is far from being unseated overall. The report emphasizes that Nvidia is expected to remain the single largest customer of TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging in 2027, primarily for its high-value AI GPUs (Blackwell, Rubin) . Morgan Stanley forecasts Nvidia's data center revenue could grow by about 52% year-over-year, driven by doubled Vera shipments and continued GPU demand . However, the report also notes that the demand story for CoWoS is diversifying, with AMD, Google TPUs, and cloud providers' in-house chips becoming key drivers of incremental growth .

Wall Street Analyst Sentiment

Recent analyst actions show strong bullish sentiment around AMD, particularly tied to its server CPU momentum. Key ratings from late June 2026 include:

• UBS: Raised AMD's price target to $670 from $470, maintaining a Buy rating. The analyst cited increasing optimism around AMD's server CPU market share gains and the traction of standalone CPU racks as key drivers .
• TD Cowen: Raised AMD's price target to $600 from $500, also with a Buy rating, noting strong data center CPU guidance .
• Loop Capital: According to a MEXC report, Loop Capital upgraded AMD to Strong Buy in mid-June .
• KeyCorp: The same report indicated KeyCorp lifted its AMD price target from $330 to $530 with an Overweight rating .

This consensus points to a Wall Street that is betting on AMD's server CPU resurgence, with the Morgan Stanley shipment forecast serving as a key data point for that thesis.

TSMC: The Critical Infrastructure Beneficiary

Morgan Stanley's forecast clearly identifies TSMC as a pivotal beneficiary of the entire AI and server-chip expansion. The report's updated CoWoS demand forecast is staggering:

• Global CoWoS demand is projected to rise from 689,000 wafers in 2025, to 1.394 million in 2026, and reach approximately 2.69 million wafers in 2027 .
• To meet this, TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is forecast to reach 200,000 wafers by the end of 2027, up from previous estimates .
• The current CoWoS supply-demand gap of roughly 20% is expected to narrow to about 10% by the end of 2026 as TSMC and its partners aggressively expand capacity .

This capacity expansion is crucial not just for Nvidia and AMD, but for the entire AI ecosystem. While Nvidia remains the anchor tenant, the demand pool is widening to include AMD (for EPYC Venice), Google (TPUs), and a host of cloud providers with their own in-house ASICs .

Key Takeaways

Morgan Stanley's June 2026 research report paints a picture of a server CPU market in flux. AMD's EPYC Venice is forecast to take a clear volume lead over Nvidia's Vera CPU in 2027, driven by a dominant architectural roadmap and process technology. This does not diminish Nvidia's overall market strength — it is still the king of CoWoS and data center revenue — but it signals that the CPU battleground is a key area of competition. The real winner is TSMC, whose advanced packaging capabilities have become the most critical bottleneck and enabler for the entire AI-driven semiconductor boom.