Ukraine's 40-Day SBU Pressure Campaign: Deep Strikes, Diplomatic Goals, and What Comes Next

The First Confirmed Strikes: Targets Deep Inside Russia

Within hours of the announcement, Ukrainian forces executed a coordinated wave of long-range drone strikes that hit three major energy targets inside Russian territory.

• Poltavskaya oil depot, Krasnodar Krai: Struck overnight on June 25 by Ukrainian Defense Forces at a distance of approximately 300 kilometers (about 180 miles) from the front line.
• Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim and Bashneft-Novoil refineries, Ufa, Bashkortostan: Hit the same morning by SBU-operated drones at a distance of roughly 1,500 kilometers (about 930 miles) from the front line—among the deepest Ukrainian strikes of the war. The SBU confirmed that the attacks caused fires at the facilities' primary processing units. Both refineries are owned by Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer.

Zelensky described these strikes as part of a 'consistent, precise response to Russia's dragging out the war and attacking Ukrainian cities and communities,' terming the campaign 'long-range sanctions.' Ukrainian officials also reported broader attacks on Russian military and energy infrastructure in the same period, including a large overnight barrage of 660 drones that targeted Moscow, the Azot chemical plant in the Tula region, and sites in occupied Crimea.

The Diplomatic Goal: Zelensky Pushes for Talks, Putin Says No

Zelensky has tied the military escalation directly to a diplomatic objective. In early June 2026, he published an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin proposing an in-person meeting to negotiate an end to the war.

Putin rejected the proposal publicly on June 5 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. 'I see no point in meeting,' Putin said. 'It only makes sense for the Ukrainian side.' He also called for the Russian military to 'do the job,' indicating Moscow would continue its military campaign. The rejection deepened the diplomatic deadlock that had already stalled peace efforts for months.

Broader Strategic Context: Operation Spiderweb and the Evolution of SBU Deep Strikes

The 40-day operation did not emerge in a vacuum. It builds directly on the SBU's demonstrated ability to conduct complex, long-range covert strikes deep inside Russia.

The most prominent precedent is Operation Spiderweb, carried out on June 1, 2025—exactly one year before the current campaign was announced. In that operation, 117 FPV drones were smuggled into Russia concealed in wooden cabins mounted on trucks, then launched simultaneously at four to five strategic Russian airbases. The SBU reported that the strikes damaged or destroyed 41 Russian strategic aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers, causing an estimated $7 billion in damage. Planning took 18 months, and the operation was personally overseen by Zelensky.

Operation Spiderweb demonstrated that Ukraine's security services could reach targets thousands of kilometers inside Russian territory—a capability that the current 40-day campaign appears to be operationalizing on a sustained basis against energy infrastructure rather than a single target set.

What the Sources Do and Don't Confirm

Several claims in some initial reports could not be verified through the provided sources:

• The claim that 'at least 15 Russian oil refineries have been hit since January 2026' is not supported by the provided sources.
• The specific role of Yevhenii Khmara as 'acting SBU chief' is mentioned in some user-generated social media posts but is not confirmed by authoritative news sources. Multiple sources refer to him as the SBU's chief.
• Claims about new U.S. sanctions, over $1 billion in security funding, or pledges from the G7 summit in Évian are not substantiated in the provided source material.

What is well-documented: the SBU's capacity for deep strikes, the June 25 attacks on Ufa and Krasnodar, the 40-day operation's approval, and Putin's rejection of Zelensky's call for talks.

Key Takeaways