Retail Investors Pick China Over US in Global AI Race: eToro Q2 2026 Survey Key Findings

The eToro Q2 2026 Retail Investor Beat survey, based on responses from 11,000 retail investors across 13 countries and published on June 24, 2026, reveals several major shifts in how retail investors view AI stocks, China's role in the AI race, and their own investing behavior. Here are the key findings and what they mean.

Cooling — but selective — optimism on AI stocks

Retail investor enthusiasm for AI stocks is moderating, but not disappearing. The share of investors expecting AI-related stock prices to rise dropped from 55% a year ago to 44% in Q2 2026. At the same time, the share expecting prices to fall rose from 11% to 17%.

This continues a trend eToro first noted in its Q1 2026 survey, when it said retail investors were becoming "more measured" in their expectations for AI stocks and the so-called "Magnificent 7" megacap tech stocks.

However, U.S. retail investors specifically remain committed to AI as a long-term opportunity. A separate eToro release on the same date notes that U.S. investors are increasingly focused on valuations and fundamentals when deploying capital, rather than chasing momentum indiscriminately.

Targeted bets across the AI value chain

Rather than piling into a narrow set of AI names, retail investors now show a more nuanced, segment-based approach. When asked which AI segment will generate the strongest returns over the next five years, the responses were nearly evenly split:

• Large technology platforms: 31%
• Pure-play AI companies: 29%
• Semiconductor firms: 28%

This near-equal distribution suggests retail investors are looking for exposure across the full AI stack — from the chipmakers to the platforms to the AI-native companies — rather than betting on a single winner.

China edges out the US as perceived AI leader

In what may be the survey's headline finding, 47% of global retail investors said China is best positioned to lead the AI race, compared to 46% who chose the United States. The gap is narrow — just 1 percentage point — but it marks a significant shift in perception.

The long-term stock-market return expectations tell a similar story. The share of investors expecting China to deliver the strongest stock-market returns rose to 29%, while the U.S. figure slipped to 35%. The U.S.-China gap has narrowed from 21 percentage points in Q4 2024 to just 6 percentage points in Q2 2026.

Importantly, this perspective is heavily regional. U.S. respondents remain staunchly pro-U.S.: 63% of American investors said the U.S. is best positioned to lead AI. But in nine of the 13 countries surveyed — including the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Australia — more investors chose China than the U.S.

Chinese stock exposure nearly doubles

Retail investors are putting money behind that view. The proportion of retail investors holding exposure to Chinese stocks rose from 7% in Q2 2024 to 12% in Q2 2026 — nearly doubling in two years.

The maturation of the retail investor

Beyond AI-specific findings, the survey paints a picture of a more disciplined, engaged retail investor base. Related eToro survey coverage from February 2026 describes retail investors as shedding the "dumb money" label and showing "high levels of engagement, disciplined portfolio construction, greater diversification and macro awareness."

Key behavioral data from that period:

• 79% of retail investors invest every month
• 70% actively review their portfolios

While the Q2 2026 survey itself does not have a specific dollar-cost averaging (DCA) adoption question, eToro has simultaneously expanded its recurring investment feature for users in the UK, Europe, and the UAE — allowing automated, regular purchases of stocks, ETFs, and crypto. The feature was launched in response to survey data showing that the top reasons investors use recurring investments are to "invest consistently with what they can afford" (45%), to make investing easier (41%), and to remove the worry of market timing (29%).

Key caveats

• The 47% vs. 46% China-U.S. split is extremely narrow — not a decisive global consensus, but a statistical tie that signals changing perceptions.
• U.S. investors remain overwhelmingly pro-U.S., so the global result is driven by European markets and Australia.
• The DCA-related behavioral data comes from earlier eToro survey waves and product announcements, not from the Q2 2026 survey's specific questions.