“Very strong” status: The retrieved Meteored article reports that the event reached this category during August–October.16 Insufficient evidence in the available excerpt to independently verify its NOAA-based +2.0°C relative anomaly, the classification threshold, or whether “officially” is NOAA’s own terminology.

RONI versus ONI: NOAA’s retrieved technical material describes the relative calculation as subtracting tropical-mean sea-surface-temperature departures across 20°S–20°N.12 This distinguishes regional Pacific warming from the broader tropical-ocean background; conventional and relative anomalies therefore should not be treated as interchangeable.12 The excerpts do not verify the February 2026 introduction date or the specific conventional ONI readings of +2.2°C for July–September and +2.5°C for August–October.

Peak projection: Meteored’s headline reports a WMO forecast of a peak “up to +3.8°C.”16 Insufficient evidence to verify the precise November–January averaging period, the estimated +3.2°C to +3.4°C relative equivalent, or an exact December peak. In particular, an estimated conversion should not be presented as an official WMO RONI forecast.

NOAA’s record-strength probability: NOAA’s October outlook gives a 70% probability for November–January of reaching a three-month RONI of +2.5°C or more, described as exceeding previous events dating back to 1950.11 It also gives 83% for October–December and 54% for September–November—so “70% chance of a record event” needs its seasonal qualification.11 NOAA bases its strengthening outlook on the coupled ocean–atmosphere state and a synthesis of multiple forecasting models.3

San Francisco rainfall: The November 5 San Francisco Chronicle report says all 51 seasonal-model forecasts favor wetter-than-normal December–March conditions, with an ensemble average of about 26 inches, nearly twice normal.15 That does not mean every member predicts 26 inches. The retrieved excerpt does not independently establish the ECMWF attribution, model-release date, or more than 8 inches in January.

Coastal-water warming: Insufficient evidence to verify the forecast of 10–13°F above normal in December, or 67°F rather than 54°F near San Francisco. Those precise numbers should remain unconfirmed rather than be used to quantify an increase in storm moisture.

Broader winter outlook: NOAA favors wetter-than-average conditions across the southern United States, from California to Florida, and warmer-than-average conditions across the northern United States for December–February.1 San Francisco’s official preparedness page separately reports a wetter-than-normal outlook for Northern California.8

“Very strong” status: The retrieved Meteored article reports that the event reached this category during August–October.16 Insufficient evidence in the available excerpt to independently verify its NOAA-based +2.0°C relative anomaly, the classification threshold, or whether “officially” is NOAA’s own terminology.

RONI versus ONI: NOAA’s retrieved technical material describes the relative calculation as subtracting tropical-mean sea-surface-temperature departures across 20°S–20°N.12 This distinguishes regional Pacific warming from the broader tropical-ocean background; conventional and relative anomalies therefore should not be treated as interchangeable.12 The excerpts do not verify the February 2026 introduction date or the specific conventional ONI readings of +2.2°C for July–September and +2.5°C for August–October.

Peak projection: Meteored’s headline reports a WMO forecast of a peak “up to +3.8°C.”16 Insufficient evidence to verify the precise November–January averaging period, the estimated +3.2°C to +3.4°C relative equivalent, or an exact December peak. In particular, an estimated conversion should not be presented as an official WMO RONI forecast.

NOAA’s record-strength probability: NOAA’s October outlook gives a 70% probability for November–January of reaching a three-month RONI of +2.5°C or more, described as exceeding previous events dating back to 1950.11 It also gives 83% for October–December and 54% for September–November—so “70% chance of a record event” needs its seasonal qualification.11 NOAA bases its strengthening outlook on the coupled ocean–atmosphere state and a synthesis of multiple forecasting models.3

San Francisco rainfall: The November 5 San Francisco Chronicle report says all 51 seasonal-model forecasts favor wetter-than-normal December–March conditions, with an ensemble average of about 26 inches, nearly twice normal.15 That does not mean every member predicts 26 inches. The retrieved excerpt does not independently establish the ECMWF attribution, model-release date, or more than 8 inches in January.

Coastal-water warming: Insufficient evidence to verify the forecast of 10–13°F above normal in December, or 67°F rather than 54°F near San Francisco. Those precise numbers should remain unconfirmed rather than be used to quantify an increase in storm moisture.

Broader winter outlook: NOAA favors wetter-than-average conditions across the southern United States, from California to Florida, and warmer-than-average conditions across the northern United States for December–February.1 San Francisco’s official preparedness page separately reports a wetter-than-normal outlook for Northern California.8