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AMD’s Q4 Revenue Forecast Sets Up a Potential First-Quarter Lead Over Intel
AMD’s Q4 revenue forecast is $16.49 billion–$17.51 billion, versus Intel’s $15 billion–$16 billion. AMD’s record Q3 revenue reached $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year, as data center sales nearly doubled to $8.55 billion.
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Key takeaways
- AMD’s Q4 revenue forecast is $16.49 billion–$17.51 billion, versus Intel’s $15 billion–$16 billion.
- AMD’s record Q3 revenue reached $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year, as data center sales nearly doubled to $8.55 billion.
- A roughly $3 billion inventory increase makes cash conversion an important test alongside revenue growth.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How do AMD’s and Intel’s November 2026 earnings reports and fourth-quarter forecasts suggest AMD could surpass Intel in quarterly revenue fo. Article summary: AMD’s guidance puts it on course to surpass Intel in quarterly revenue for the first time: its entire fourth-quarter forecast range is above Intel’s, with a $1.5 billion midpoint advantage. That remains a forecast—not a . Topic tags: general, news, general web. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers
AMD’s fourth-quarter outlook puts it on track to report more revenue than Intel for the first time, if both companies meet their forecasts. AMD guided to $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, while Intel forecast $15 billion–$16 billion. The gap reflects more than an unusually strong quarter for AMD: its data-center business is growing rapidly, while Intel’s outlook is constrained by weak PC demand and manufacturing disruption. But the projected lead is not yet a reported result, and AMD’s inventory buildup makes sales conversion worth watching. 2
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The forecast gap: AMD’s range is above Intel’s
AMD’s guidance implies fourth-quarter revenue of $16.49 billion–$17.51 billion. Intel’s range is $15 billion–$16 billion. Their midpoint forecasts are $17 billion and $15.5 billion, respectively—a $1.5 billion difference, or about 9.7% of Intel’s midpoint. Even AMD’s low-end forecast exceeds Intel’s high end by $490 million. 2
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The estimates also put AMD ahead of analyst expectations. AMD’s $17 billion midpoint compares with published estimates of $16.23 billion and about $16.3 billion—roughly 4%–5% lower. Intel’s $15 billion–$16 billion range, meanwhile, falls short of an analyst average around $17 billion. 2
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AMD’s third-quarter results give the forecast some context: revenue hit a record $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year and above the cited $13.09 billion consensus. A $17 billion fourth-quarter midpoint would be about 27% higher than that Q3 result. 3
Data-center growth is driving AMD’s outlook
AMD’s data-center revenue reached a record $8.55 billion in Q3, up 97% year over year and accounting for about 64% of total sales. That growth reflects demand for both EPYC server CPUs and AMD’s AI products. 1
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The company is expanding its AI offer beyond individual accelerators. Reporting describes the Instinct MI455X accelerators as part of the Helios rack-scale system, with Helios and Venice production expected to ramp. One published estimate puts Q4 data-center revenue at about $12.8 billion, around three-quarters of AMD’s $17 billion total midpoint. That segment figure is an estimate based on the company’s overall guidance, not a separately confirmed segment forecast in the cited material. 16
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CEO Lisa Su expects AMD’s total revenue to grow by more than 80% in 2027, compared with analysts’ estimate of 77%. She also expects data-center chips to account for about 80% of sales next year. Those are forward-looking expectations, not reported results. 1
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The expansion comes alongside weakness in AMD’s client and gaming business: combined revenue fell 8% year over year to about $3.72 billion in Q3. That contrast makes the data-center ramp central to whether AMD can sustain its overall growth pace.
Intel’s outlook reflects PC weakness and a supply disruption
Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion–$16 billion, below the roughly $17 billion analyst estimate. Its outlook cited sluggish PC demand and supply-chain disruption. 11
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A blast at Intel’s Kiryat Gat facility in Israel disrupted operations for about two weeks. Intel estimated the incident would cost roughly $600 million in revenue across two quarters, including about $300 million in Q4, and reporting said the disruption would also reduce supplies of AI server chips. 6
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That disruption adds to the challenge of a weaker PC market. The available figures do not isolate how much of Intel’s forecast gap comes from the factory incident versus demand or other supply constraints, so the two pressures should not be treated as interchangeable explanations.
What investors should watch next
The early market reaction to AMD’s outlook was positive: its shares rose about 8% in extended trading after the results, then 7.3% in premarket trading the following day. Those moves show the immediate response to the report, not how either stock will perform over a longer period. 1
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AMD also reported an inventory increase of about $3 billion sequentially, to roughly $11.5 billion, as it prepared for data-center demand. Building inventory can support a product ramp, but the next results will help show whether that investment is turning into sales. Investors can look at revenue delivery alongside inventory changes and cash generation rather than treating a revenue beat alone as proof of healthy conversion. 9
For the potential crossover, the clearest test is whether AMD lands within its Q4 guidance range and sustains data-center growth. If it does, its forecast would put it ahead of Intel for the quarter; until results are reported, the revenue lead remains a projection.
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People also ask
What is the short answer to "AMD’s Q4 Revenue Forecast Sets Up a Potential First-Quarter Lead Over Intel"?
AMD’s Q4 revenue forecast is $16.49 billion–$17.51 billion, versus Intel’s $15 billion–$16 billion.
What are the key points to validate first?
AMD’s Q4 revenue forecast is $16.49 billion–$17.51 billion, versus Intel’s $15 billion–$16 billion. AMD’s record Q3 revenue reached $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year, as data center sales nearly doubled to $8.55 billion.
What should I do next in practice?
A roughly $3 billion inventory increase makes cash conversion an important test alongside revenue growth.