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How did Gulf oil exports in October compare with September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, August volumes and pre war baselines, according to Vortexa and Kpler data reported by Reuters, Argus, CNBC and Gulf News; what were the reported volumes and changes for total cru
Reuters’ November 3 report said October Gulf oil exports fell from September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, but both tracking firms cautioned that October estimates could be revised upward as shipment details emerged.[1] The ava Reported volumes and comparisons September total, including LPG: Vortexa est...
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- Reuters’ November 3 report said October Gulf oil exports fell from September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, but both tracking firms cautioned that October estimates could be revised upward as shipment details emerged.[1] The ava
- Reported volumes and comparisons September total, including LPG: Vortexa estimated crude, condensate and refined fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE at 19.2 million bpd , versus 23.6 million bpd in
- Earlier October snapshot: Reuters’ October 22 commentary cited Kpler’s October to date Middle East oil exports at 17.3 million bpd , versus 16.4 million bpd in September and 16.9 million bpd in the two pre war months —increases of 0.9 milli
- The available CNBC reference confirms coverage of Vortexa data, but supplies no numerical figures.[54] Country contributions Saudi Arabia’s September rebound: Reuters’ September 28 report put regional crude exports at 12.8 million bpd and S
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Reuters’ November 3 report said October Gulf oil exports fell from September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, but both tracking firms cautioned that October estimates could be revised upward as shipment details emerged.1 The available excerpts support that overall conclusion, but do not contain enough detail to verify all the requested volumes, country changes and revision amounts.
Reported volumes and comparisons
- September total, including LPG: Vortexa estimated crude, condensate and refined-fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE at 19.2 million bpd, versus 23.6 million bpd in the pre-war year—about 81% of baseline, or 4.4 million bpd below it.
2 This is not the requested total excluding LPG.
- Earlier October snapshot: Reuters’ October 22 commentary cited Kpler’s October-to-date Middle East oil exports at 17.3 million bpd, versus 16.4 million bpd in September and 16.9 million bpd in the two pre-war months—increases of 0.9 million and 0.4 million bpd, respectively.
- Hormuz alone: In an October 6 note reported by Reuters, Kpler put crude crossing the strait at at least 10.1 million bpd, down 27% from the previous week’s wartime high, back to its September average and at 74% of the pre-war level.
- Early-October products through Hormuz: Argus reported Vortexa’s product flows for October 1–12 at 1.33 million bpd, explicitly including LPG, lubricating oils and other products; its excerpt also reported combined crude and product flows of approximately 10.3 million bpd, comprising 8.5 million crude and 1.8 million products, but does not expose the comparison period for that combined figure.
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- Daily variation: Reuters reported that Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in September’s final week; the excerpt does not supply the individual daily volumes.
Insufficient evidence is available here for the October total excluding LPG, August comparison, separate October crude-and-condensate and refined-fuel totals, the week ended October 28, or the complete Hormuz–Red Sea–Gulf of Oman breakdown. The available CNBC reference confirms coverage of Vortexa data, but supplies no numerical figures.54
Country contributions
- Saudi Arabia’s September rebound: Reuters’ September 28 report put regional crude exports at 12.8 million bpd and Saudi crude exports at approximately 5.4 million bpd.
- Different Saudi October estimates: A Bloomberg report reproduced by Rigzone put Vortexa’s October-to-date Saudi exports from both coasts at 6.5 million bpd, versus 6.6 million in September, while TankerTrackers estimated 6.99 million bpd, described as pre-war levels.
3 The 5.4 million figure above concerns an earlier September estimate, so it cannot be treated as a simultaneous October comparison.
- UAE, Iraq, Oman and Kuwait: They were included in Vortexa’s regional September aggregate, but the supplied excerpts do not quantify their individual contributions to October’s change.
- Iran: Iran was outside that seven-country aggregate, but the available excerpts do not establish the stated reason for excluding it.
Reliability and likely revisions
- The headline decline was provisional: Both tracking firms explicitly allowed for upward revisions to October as more shipment information became available.
- Tracking gaps can understate recent flows: Reuters noted that ships often disable satellite tracking while travelling through the area and that subsequently identified movements could lead to higher estimates.
- Different dates and definitions matter: The evidence mixes month-to-date and later monthly estimates, Hormuz-only flows and broader regional exports, and totals including LPG with the requested LPG-excluding measure.
- Attacks did not imply exports stopped: Contemporary reporting described Saudi exports near wartime highs despite attacks on infrastructure and increased reported strikes on tankers around Hormuz.
The excerpts do not verify the claimed record October attack count, satellite-confirmation delays, the size of September’s upward revisions, or a like-for-like tracking-firm discrepancy of several million bpd. Consequently, upward revision of October was a stated possibility—not a verified amount or a guarantee that the reported decline would disappear.1
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Reuters’ November 3 report said October Gulf oil exports fell from September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, but both tracking firms cautioned that October estimates could be revised upward as shipment details emerged.[1] The ava
What are the key points to validate first?
Reuters’ November 3 report said October Gulf oil exports fell from September’s highest levels since the Iran war began, but both tracking firms cautioned that October estimates could be revised upward as shipment details emerged.[1] The ava Reported volumes and comparisons September total, including LPG: Vortexa estimated crude, condensate and refined fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE at 19.2 million bpd , versus 23.6 million bpd in
What should I do next in practice?
Earlier October snapshot: Reuters’ October 22 commentary cited Kpler’s October to date Middle East oil exports at 17.3 million bpd , versus 16.4 million bpd in September and 16.9 million bpd in the two pre war months —increases of 0.9 milli