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Middle East Fertiliser Exports Fell 71% in September. Why Supply Risks Could Last
Middle East fertiliser shipments fell from 3.41 million tonnes in September 2025 to 994,000 tonnes in September 2026—a calculated drop of about 71%.
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- Middle East fertiliser shipments fell from 3.41 million tonnes in September 2025 to 994,000 tonnes in September 2026—a calculated drop of about 71%.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: As of November 1, 2026, what does Kpler’s data reveal about the 70–75% decline in Middle Eastern fertiliser exports, including September shi. Article summary: As of November 1, 2026, the available evidence points to a severe fertiliser supply disruption, with Middle Eastern exports down roughly 70–75% and potential effects on costs and availability extending into 2027. [11][4]. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated, government, education. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, wat
Middle Eastern fertiliser shipments fell sharply in September 2026 as disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz constrained exports. The reported Kpler figures show 994,000 tonnes shipped, compared with 3.41 million tonnes a year earlier—a calculated year-over-year decline of about 71%. The immediate shortfall is clear; how much it will ultimately affect harvests and food prices remains uncertain. 4
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What the September figures show
The September comparison amounts to 2.416 million fewer tonnes of fertiliser shipments than in September 2025. The National reported that regional exports were down 70–75%, citing Kpler data, and that supplies could remain near their current low level through the end of the year. That is an outlook, not a guarantee that exports will stay at September’s level. 4
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The figures describe regional shipments, not global fertiliser production. They also should not be confused with Kpler’s separate measure of sulphur flows: Kpler reported that sulphur exports crossing Hormuz from March to September were about 55% of their pre-war pace. That measure covers a different product, period and baseline. 2
Why Hormuz matters—and why passage is not all-or-nothing
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for fertiliser and related raw materials from the Gulf. Reporting on the export decline describes seaborne trade as severely disrupted and says Saudi Arabia’s overland trucking alternative was insufficient to make up for lost shipments. European Commission material also warns that restrictions on fertiliser transit can reduce availability, tighten markets and constrain production when key inputs are scarce. 4
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The route has not been impassable to every vessel. Argus reported that two sulphur carriers crossed in October despite heightened risks to commercial shipping. Their passage shows that some cargo could move; it does not establish that shipping had returned to normal or that exporters could reliably move previous volumes. 6
How concentrated supply raises the stakes
A Commission-hosted market analysis says the Middle East accounts for roughly half of global sulphur exports and more than 30% of global urea exports. These are export shares, not production shares, and they help explain why disruption in the region can affect buyers well beyond the Gulf. 19
Sulphur matters especially to phosphate fertilisers. It is used to make sulphuric acid, which manufacturers need to process phosphate rock into products including MAP and DAP. The International Fertilizer Development Center says there is no practical substitute for sulphur in conventional phosphate-fertiliser manufacturing.
Supply pressure is not limited to the Middle East. The International Food Policy Research Institute reported declines in sulphur exports from China, Morocco and Russia, alongside disruption to Gulf shipments. It also said Mosaic idled phosphate production at two Louisiana plants in late August. These examples indicate how a shortage of a key input can affect production elsewhere, but they do not establish the scale of every producer’s cutbacks.
Replacement supplies are not a simple fix
Cornell’s fertiliser outlook identifies China as the world’s largest phosphate supplier and says its phosphate exports had been restricted for the preceding nine months. The same source says Russia, normally an important supplier of tradable sulphur, had blocked exports. Those constraints make it harder to assume that either country can quickly replace lost Gulf supply. The available evidence does not quantify how much replacement cargo might be available or what it would cost buyers.
Sulphur prices have more than doubled over the previous six months, according to IFPRI, increasing pressure on phosphate producers. Price changes and production decisions vary by company and market; the sources available here do not establish a complete account of impacts on individual firms such as Nutrien or on producers in every affected country.
What the disruption could mean for farmers and food prices
Fertiliser sourcing and prices could remain difficult beyond the immediate shipping disruption. Cornell’s outlook points to elevated pricing and sourcing issues into 2027 and beyond. A separate report says fertiliser prices could stay elevated into spring 2027 even if tensions ease and Hormuz shipping returns to normal.
Higher costs or delayed deliveries could make it harder for farmers to obtain fertiliser when they need it. Analysts cited by The National have warned of risks to harvests and food inflation, but the available sources do not quantify resulting crop losses or establish a specific increase in global food prices. The risk is especially consequential where farmers and consumers have limited ability to absorb higher costs, though the evidence provided does not measure country-by-country effects. 4
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The strongest supported conclusion is that the September export collapse has tightened supply and increased the risk of prolonged cost and sourcing pressure. It does not, on its own, prove a particular 2027 food-price outcome or the scale of future harvest losses.
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Middle East fertiliser shipments fell from 3.41 million tonnes in September 2025 to 994,000 tonnes in September 2026—a calculated drop of about 71%.