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Ukraine and ISW Challenge Moscow’s Claims of Sweeping Battlefield Gains
Ukraine said Russia had not captured more than 1,800 square kilometers or 92 settlements since September 1, and that Dobropillia remained under Ukrainian control. For January through September, one report citing ISW put Russia’s net gain at 144.51 square kilometers—far below Putin’s claim of 6,500.
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Key takeaways
- Ukraine said Russia had not captured more than 1,800 square kilometers or 92 settlements since September 1, and that Dobropillia remained under Ukrainian control.
- For January through September, one report citing ISW put Russia’s net gain at 144.51 square kilometers—far below Putin’s claim of 6,500.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How did Ukraine and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) challenge Valery Gerasimov’s report to Vladimir Putin that Russia had captured. Article summary: Ukraine rejected Gerasimov’s claimed autumn gains as an “illusion,” while ISW’s estimates indicated far smaller Russian gains over the year and a net territorial loss since September 1. However, the available excerpts ar. Topic tags: general, news, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts wi
Ukraine rejected Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s claim that Russian forces had captured more than 1,800 square kilometers and 92 settlements since September 1, including Dobropillia. Its General Staff said Dobropillia remained under Ukrainian control. ISW’s assessment offered a sharply different territorial picture, reporting a net Russian loss since September 1. 1
What Ukraine disputed
Gerasimov told President Vladimir Putin that Russian forces had made extensive gains since September 1. Ukrainian General Staff spokesman Andriy Kovaliov called the figures false and said Ukrainian forces had liberated more territory than Russia had seized since the beginning of autumn. 1
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Ukraine specifically rejected Russia’s claim to have captured Dobropillia. Ukrainian officials also disputed claims about Russian advances toward Kramatorsk and Zaporizhzhia, including the claim that Russian forces had reached within five kilometers of Zaporizhzhia city. The Ukrainian General Staff said the line of contact remained about 22 kilometers from the city. These are competing battlefield statements, not independently confirmed control assessments in the material cited here. 12
A separate summary of Ukraine’s response said Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka, Orikhiv and Velykomykhailivka remained under Ukrainian control, and described the frontline near Zaporizhzhia as stable. The supplied reporting does not establish Ukrainian officials’ detailed position on every settlement named in Russian claims, so those claims should not be treated as verified simply because they were reported.
How ISW’s figures compare with Moscow’s claims
For the period since September 1, ISW assessed that Russian forces had suffered a net territorial loss of about 122 square kilometers—not the gain of more than 1,800 square kilometers Gerasimov reported.
For the start of the year, Putin claimed Russia had captured about 6,500 square kilometers and 310 settlements. One report citing ISW put Russia’s net territorial gain from January through September at 144.51 square kilometers, roughly 45 times less land than Putin claimed.
The supplied summaries do not give a single consistent cumulative figure for the full year-to-date period: the October 16 ISW assessment is also summarized as putting Russian gains at about 100 square kilometers and 69 settlements since January 1. Those figures cover a different reporting snapshot from the January–September estimate and should not be combined as if they were the same calculation.
What the numbers do—and do not—show
The central contrast is clear: Ukraine rejected Moscow’s account of major autumn advances, while ISW’s reported net-territory assessment did not support Gerasimov’s claim of a large net gain since September 1. But territorial estimates depend on the assessment date and the period measured, and the figures here do not resolve control of every named location. The claims and estimates should therefore remain attributed to the parties and analysts who made them, rather than presented as a definitive account of the entire battlefield. 1
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Ukraine said Russia had not captured more than 1,800 square kilometers or 92 settlements since September 1, and that Dobropillia remained under Ukrainian control.
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Ukraine said Russia had not captured more than 1,800 square kilometers or 92 settlements since September 1, and that Dobropillia remained under Ukrainian control. For January through September, one report citing ISW put Russia’s net gain at 144.51 square kilometers—far below Putin’s claim of 6,500.
Sources
reuters.comUkraine says Russia's claimed territorial advances are 'an ...
newsukraine.rbc.uaUkraine debunks Russian claims of advances in Donetsk ...
english.nv.uaUkraine's General Staff rejects Gerasimov's claims of capturing Dobropillia and advancing on Kramatorsk