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Middle East Oil Flows Are Near Prewar Levels, but the Recovery Remains Fragile
Shell CEO Wael Sawan says Middle Eastern oil flows are about 80% of prewar levels; Kpler says September Gulf crude exports excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels a day, near that measure’s prewar level. About 40% of the Gulf crude in Kpler’s measure now leaves without crossing the Strait of Hormuz, but...
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Key takeaways
- Shell CEO Wael Sawan says Middle Eastern oil flows are about 80% of prewar levels; Kpler says September Gulf crude exports excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels a day, near that measure’s prewar level.
- About 40% of the Gulf crude in Kpler’s measure now leaves without crossing the Strait of Hormuz, but tracking gaps and continued shipping risks make the picture uncertain.
- Emergency stock releases, weaker demand and higher supply elsewhere can cushion a shortfall, but they do not by themselves show that Gulf exports have sustainably recovered.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How much have Middle Eastern oil flows recovered since the US-Israeli war with Iran began, according to Shell CEO Wael Sawan and Kpler’s tan. Article summary: Shell CEO Wael Sawan says Middle Eastern oil flows have recovered to about **80% of prewar levels**. Kpler’s tanker data show a stronger recovery for a narrower measure: Gulf crude exports **excluding Iran** reached at l. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated, government, news. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermar
Middle Eastern oil shipments have rebounded, but the headline estimates are not directly comparable. Shell CEO Wael Sawan puts regional flows at about 80% of prewar levels. Kpler says Gulf crude exports excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels a day in September, matching the prewar average for that narrower measure. 6
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The gap between those figures is not necessarily a contradiction: they describe different measures. Other published estimates also differ, and the available reports do not fully reconcile them. 1
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A recovery built on different routes
Kpler says about 40% of the crude in its measure left the region without crossing the Strait of Hormuz in September, compared with 17% before the war. Saudi Arabia and the UAE made greater use of pipeline routes, while some cargoes crossing Hormuz changed tankers offshore. 1
That rerouting has helped sustain exports, but it does not mean the shipping system is back to normal. Tanker attacks and disruption risks have continued, and a substantial share of crude still travels through Hormuz. 1
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Reports describe pipelines already being used to redirect exports. They do not establish how much capacity any proposed new pipeline would add or when it might become operational. Proposed projects should therefore not be counted as part of today’s recovery. 1
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Ship tracking makes the totals harder to verify
Some vessels switch off their satellite signals while passing through Hormuz and parts of the Red Sea, making cargo tracking less precise. Kpler says it combines vessel tracking with satellite imagery; reports also describe ship-to-ship transfers that can complicate the task of following cargoes. 6
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This uncertainty matters when comparing estimates. Figures can differ because they cover different routes, time periods or groups of exporters, as well as because some vessel movements are difficult to observe. The available reports do not provide a single, fully reconciled total. 1
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Reserves and other supply cushions buy time
The G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves. That can add supply in the near term, but it is a temporary measure. Saudi Aramco’s CEO has warned that global inventories are thin and could take up to two years to rebuild.
Reduced demand and higher supplies from elsewhere have also helped offset disrupted flows, according to industry reporting. Kpler has separately cited weak Chinese demand and high crude stocks in its market outlook. The sources do not quantify how much those factors have compensated for lost Gulf supply, so they should be treated as cushions—not proof that regional exports have recovered. 3
What to watch next
The clearest takeaway is that volumes have recovered more than the routes have. Sawan’s estimate signals a substantial rebound, while Kpler’s September figure shows that Gulf crude exports excluding Iran reached their prewar average using a reshaped export system. 6
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Whether that recovery lasts depends on continued access to shipping routes, the reliability of export estimates and whether temporary supports—such as emergency reserves, lower demand and supply from other producers—can be sustained. With tracking gaps and ongoing risks around Hormuz, near-prewar export figures alone do not establish that the market is back to normal. 6
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What is the short answer to "Middle East Oil Flows Are Near Prewar Levels, but the Recovery Remains Fragile"?
Shell CEO Wael Sawan says Middle Eastern oil flows are about 80% of prewar levels; Kpler says September Gulf crude exports excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels a day, near that measure’s prewar level.
What are the key points to validate first?
Shell CEO Wael Sawan says Middle Eastern oil flows are about 80% of prewar levels; Kpler says September Gulf crude exports excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels a day, near that measure’s prewar level. About 40% of the Gulf crude in Kpler’s measure now leaves without crossing the Strait of Hormuz, but tracking gaps and continued shipping risks make the picture uncertain.
What should I do next in practice?
Emergency stock releases, weaker demand and higher supply elsewhere can cushion a shortfall, but they do not by themselves show that Gulf exports have sustainably recovered.