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Why Gold’s Rebound Stalled Near $4,150 After Weak US Jobs Data
Gold’s rebound stalled near $4,150 on October 5: weak US payrolls reduced the odds of an October Fed hike to about 20%, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields remained headwinds.[5][14] Gold and silver had both fallen sharply over the prior week. Monday’s quoted prices varied by market and trading time,...
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Key takeaways
- Gold’s rebound stalled near $4,150 on October 5: weak US payrolls reduced the odds of an October Fed hike to about 20%, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields remained headwinds.[5][14]
- Gold and silver had both fallen sharply over the prior week. Monday’s quoted prices varied by market and trading time, while December MCX gold futures fell about ₹1,020 per 10 grams.[17][19][20]
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: Why did gold struggle to extend its rebound and trade near $4,150 an ounce on Monday despite weak September US jobs data, and how did the st. Article summary: Gold’s rebound on Monday, October 5, was limited because the weak September jobs report reduced the case for an immediate Fed rate hike, but a strong dollar and elevated Treasury yields still made non-yielding bullion le. Topic tags: general, news, general web, government. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with
Gold’s recovery on Monday, October 5, was modest because the weak US jobs report eased one pressure on bullion—expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike—but did not remove the competing drag from a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields. Spot gold was reported at $4,153.66 an ounce in one early snapshot, while a separate COMEX update put gold futures at $4,182. Those are different market measures and snapshots, not a single fixed Monday price.5
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Why weak jobs data did not lift gold further
US payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, against expectations of about 90,000. After the release, markets put the probability of an October Fed rate hike at roughly 20%, supporting gold by reducing the prospect of higher rates in the near term.5
But rate expectations were only part of the picture. A firm dollar and high Treasury yields weighed on bullion, which does not pay interest. Reporting also described the possibility of a December rate increase as still in play, though the available sources do not establish a reliable probability for that outcome.14
Geopolitical risks offered a counterweight: tensions around the Strait of Hormuz were cited as a source of safe-haven demand, while related energy-inflation concerns kept the rate outlook in focus.7 The available reporting does not quantify the effect of Chinese gold buying or ETF flows on Monday’s price, so those factors cannot be isolated as drivers of this rebound.
Gold and silver after a difficult week
Gold and silver both ended the previous week lower. Spot gold lost more than 3% and silver more than 6%, as a stronger dollar and rising yields outweighed support from softer economic data. Gold briefly moved above $4,200 during the week but failed to hold those gains, closing below $4,150, according to the cited weekly review.17
On Monday, silver was firmer in early trading: one COMEX snapshot put it near $61.60 an ounce, up almost 2%.19 In India, December MCX gold futures fell ₹1,020 per 10 grams, while December silver futures rose ₹1,223 per kilogram, or 0.54%, in the cited market update.
20 The difference between spot and futures prices, and between updates taken at different times, helps explain why Monday’s quoted levels do not all match.
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What could shape the next move
The key tension is whether further data and Fed communications reinforce the case for holding rates steady or revive expectations of tighter policy. FOMC minutes were identified in the reporting as an upcoming policy signal.14 The supplied sources do not establish a specific, well-supported silver resistance level or quantify how Chinese buying and ETF demand might affect the near-term outlook, so those points should not be treated as settled forecasts.
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Gold’s rebound stalled near $4,150 on October 5: weak US payrolls reduced the odds of an October Fed hike to about 20%, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields remained headwinds.[5][14]
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Gold’s rebound stalled near $4,150 on October 5: weak US payrolls reduced the odds of an October Fed hike to about 20%, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields remained headwinds.[5][14] Gold and silver had both fallen sharply over the prior week. Monday’s quoted prices varied by market and trading time, while December MCX gold futures fell about ₹1,020 per 10 grams.[17][19][20]