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Why Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder MVRV Makes This Bear Market Different
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s long term holder MVRV bottomed above 1 and is rising, meaning the cohort stayed in aggregate profit—unlike bear market lows since at least 2015. LTH MVRV measures market value against the on chain cost basis of coins at least 155 days old: 1 is break even, below 1 is aggregate loss, and 1–1....
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Key takeaways
- Glassnode says Bitcoin’s long term holder MVRV bottomed above 1 and is rising, meaning the cohort stayed in aggregate profit—unlike bear market lows since at least 2015.
- LTH MVRV measures market value against the on chain cost basis of coins at least 155 days old: 1 is break even, below 1 is aggregate loss, and 1–1.5 is Glassnode’s “low risk” band.
- Near $85,000 in early October, Bitcoin was close to a large $84,000–$85,000 holder cost basis cluster; long term holders were also realizing profits, while miners faced a separate set of pressures.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How does Glassnode’s finding that Bitcoin’s long-term holder MVRV ratio bottomed above 1 and is rising make this bear market unique since at. Article summary: Glassnode’s finding makes this bear market unusual in one specific respect: Bitcoin’s long-term holders, *as a group*, did not fall below their estimated purchase cost at the cycle low. Glassnode says that happened in ev. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated, documentation. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks,
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s long-term-holder MVRV ratio stayed above 1 through this cycle, bottomed above that break-even level and has started climbing again. In its comparison, every prior bear market since at least 2015 saw the ratio fall below 1 near the cycle low. That makes this downturn unusual in one specific way: long-term holders, taken as a cohort, have not gone underwater. It does not establish that Bitcoin has reached a price bottom or that every long-held coin is profitable.
What LTH-MVRV measures
MVRV stands for market value to realized value. It compares an asset’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which values coins at the price when they last moved on-chain. The ratio is used to gauge unrealized profit or loss across the selected supply.
Long-term-holder MVRV applies that comparison only to unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that are at least 155 days old. It is a coin-age classification, not a way to identify an individual owner’s intentions or circumstances.
The ratio’s basic thresholds are straightforward:
- At 1: market value and the cohort’s realized value are equal, so the group is approximately at break-even.
- Below 1: the cohort’s market value is below its realized value, indicating aggregate unrealized losses.
- Above 1: the cohort is in aggregate unrealized profit. For example, Glassnode describes 1.0 as break-even and values above it as profit.
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These are cohort-level readings. They do not mean every long-term holder has the same cost basis: some holders can be at a loss even when the group’s ratio is above 1.
What “low risk” means—and what it doesn’t
Glassnode’s LTH-MVRV signal groups readings into bands: below 1 is “very low risk,” 1 to 1.5 is “low risk,” 1.5 to 3.5 is “high risk,” and above 3.5 is “very high risk.” In this framework, a reading just above 1 indicates aggregate profit without the elevated unrealized gains associated with the higher bands.
Those labels describe the indicator’s relative valuation-risk framework; they are not a forecast or a promise that holders cannot lose money. A reading below 1 is labeled “very low risk” in the framework even though it also means the cohort is, in aggregate, underwater. The profit-and-loss threshold and the risk-band label answer different questions.
How the reading fits with Bitcoin near $85,000
In early October, Glassnode’s post quoted Bitcoin near $85,581, while reporting that LTH-MVRV had turned higher after bottoming above 1. The price was also near a substantial $84,000–$85,000 long-term-holder cost-basis cluster identified by Glassnode. 3
That nearby cluster matters as market context, not as a contradiction of the aggregate MVRV reading. A cohort can be profitable overall while some of its coins have acquisition prices close to the current market price. And profit does not mean holders have stopped realizing gains: Glassnode reported that long-term holders nearly doubled their realized profit in the week to September 29 compared with the week of the breakout. 6
Miner revenue and holder profitability tell different stories
Bitcoin miners’ economics are a separate measure of market pressure. September 2026 was miners’ strongest revenue month since January, with revenue reported at about $1.12 billion—just below January’s $1.15 billion. At the same time, reporting on the second quarter said publicly listed miners had fallen below aggregate cash break-even, amid low revenue per unit of computing power and some operators’ shift toward AI infrastructure.
Those facts can coexist: a stronger month of miner revenue does not, by itself, resolve the cost pressures reported for listed miners, and miner revenue does not determine long-term holders’ MVRV. The indicators track different parts of the Bitcoin market.
The takeaway: unusual cohort profitability, not proof of a market bottom
The historical distinction is that LTH-MVRV did not cross below 1 at this cycle’s low, as Glassnode says it did in previous bear markets since at least 2015. That points to less cohort-wide unrealized loss among long-term holders than in those comparisons. But it should be read alongside individual cost bases, profit-taking, price behavior and the separate economics facing miners—not as a stand-alone signal that the downturn is over. 6
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What is the short answer to "Why Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder MVRV Makes This Bear Market Different"?
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s long term holder MVRV bottomed above 1 and is rising, meaning the cohort stayed in aggregate profit—unlike bear market lows since at least 2015.
What are the key points to validate first?
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s long term holder MVRV bottomed above 1 and is rising, meaning the cohort stayed in aggregate profit—unlike bear market lows since at least 2015. LTH MVRV measures market value against the on chain cost basis of coins at least 155 days old: 1 is break even, below 1 is aggregate loss, and 1–1.5 is Glassnode’s “low risk” band.
What should I do next in practice?
Near $85,000 in early October, Bitcoin was close to a large $84,000–$85,000 holder cost basis cluster; long term holders were also realizing profits, while miners faced a separate set of pressures.