Why Qatar’s LNG Supply May Stay Tight Through Winter 2026—and What It Means for Prices

JERA chairman and chief executive Yukio Kani expects Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to remain constrained into winter 2026. The problem is twofold: disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Qatar’s export facilities. Some cargoes are moving again, but that does not amount to a dependable return to normal deliveries. 210

The pressure matters beyond Qatar. Europe is trying to rebuild gas inventories, while buyers in Europe and Asia are seeking alternatives to missing Middle Eastern supply. Kani expects LNG spot prices to stay high or rise further, though the scale of any increase remains uncertain. 348

Why Qatari LNG is still at risk

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for Qatari exports. Recent tanker traffic has increased, but flows remain far below prewar levels and normal exports have not resumed. 10 Kani has said he does not expect Qatar’s LNG to return to the market soon. 2

Shipping is only part of the constraint. Qatar’s Ras Laffan export complex has been operating at reduced capacity after damage in March. Repairing damaged LNG facilities is expected to take time: QatarEnergy has put the repair period at three to five years, while Kani has said some facilities may not be restored within two to three years. Those estimates point to a recovery extending well beyond this winter, although they do not provide a precise schedule for a return to full exports. 15

Force majeure pushes missed deliveries into winter

QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices for some customers in Asia and Europe, meaning it says it cannot meet specified delivery obligations. Italian buyer Edison said its Qatari deliveries would not resume before early December 2026. 1

That leaves buyers needing to cover supply gaps with other cargoes. Buyers are looking to the United States and other sources, but replacing Qatari volumes adds to competition between European and Asian importers. 68 The available reporting does not establish that every buyer will face the same shortfall or replacement options.

Why Kani expects prices to stay firm

Kani’s outlook reflects the combination of reduced supply and demand for replacement cargoes. He has warned that low European gas inventories and Hormuz disruption could keep spot LNG prices rising; in June, he said prices might remain relatively firm as Europe replenished stocks ahead of winter. 34

In an October 2 interview, Kani said LNG spot prices were about double their level a year earlier and described market concern about the coming winter. 2 That is a snapshot of the market and his assessment—not a precise forecast of how far prices will move. The direction will depend on how much supply is available, how reliably ships can transit Hormuz, and how strongly buyers compete for cargoes.

Kani has also warned that Russian gas deliveries to Europe were expected to stop on January 1, 2027. That would add to Europe’s need for alternative supply, but the reporting cited here does not establish the details of an EU ban or its implementation. 11

What could restore exports—and what diplomacy can’t yet tell us

More tanker movements through Hormuz offer a limited sign of improvement, but shipments remain well below prewar levels and QatarEnergy has continued extending delivery suspensions. 10 A broader recovery depends on both more reliable safe passage and the repair of damaged export capacity; the sources do not give a firm date for either. 15

Diplomatic activity is ongoing, but it is not the same as a shipping agreement. Japanese and Qatari leaders discussed the Iran conflict and maritime disruption at a Tokyo meeting on October 2. Qatar has also been asked to convey Iranian proposals concerning the Strait of Hormuz to the United States. Separately, a report said Iran had privately floated restoring nuclear inspectors’ access to bombed facilities in exchange for sanctions relief. That report describes a possible opening in nuclear talks, not an agreement to reopen Hormuz. 18

For LNG buyers, the near-term takeaway is that increased vessel traffic alone does not guarantee a return to normal Qatari supply. Until shipping and damaged capacity recover, Europe and Asia are likely to keep competing for alternative cargoes, leaving spot prices exposed to further disruption. 2610