Gasoline-Only Cars Fall Below Half of Global New-Car Sales in H1 2026

Gasoline-only cars made up 49% of global new-car sales in January–June 2026, the first time their share fell below half in a Nikkei analysis of Mobility Global data. Sales dropped 10% year on year to 20.25 million, and the analysis excluded some large vehicles. The milestone captures a change in the mix of cars being sold—not a world where most new cars are fully electric. 8

What the 49% figure does—and doesn’t—mean

The measure excludes hybrids, including vehicles that still use gasoline alongside electric power. So the other 51% of new-car sales were not all battery-electric vehicles. The reported threshold is specifically for gasoline-only cars, and it should not be confused with the share of sales taken by EVs. 48

The longer-term change is substantial: gasoline-only cars accounted for 73% of global sales in 2021, according to the same analysis. That five-year comparison shows how quickly the mix has changed, but it does not tell us how much of the shift went to hybrids, battery-electric cars or other types of vehicles. 8

Oil prices, battery costs and incentives all matter

Higher fuel prices can make the lower running costs of electric cars more attractive. The International Energy Agency says the high oil-price environment is drawing consumer attention to EVs’ economic benefits, while noting that electric cars generally have lower running costs because of their higher efficiency. That is one factor in the shift, not proof that fuel prices alone explain it. 12

Battery costs and vehicle prices also affect the decision. The IEA reports that average battery prices fell 8% in 2025, while BloombergNEF points to falling battery prices and more affordable EV models as factors supporting adoption. But affordability and the economics of ownership vary across markets. 4019

Policy can move demand too. The IEA links weaker first-half car sales in China and the United States to economic pressures and changes in policy settings. It also reports that electric-car sales fell in the first quarter before rising 35% in the second quarter compared with the first. The rebound shows why a single six-month total may conceal sharp changes within the year. 9

Regional shifts are uneven

The gasoline-only decline was steepest in China and Europe, according to the Nikkei analysis. At the same time, weaker demand in China and the United States weighed on global car sales overall in the first half, according to the IEA. A falling gasoline-only share can therefore coexist with slow or declining EV sales in particular markets. 89

China remains a major part of the global electrified-car market, but figures depend on what is counted. One report that includes plug-in hybrids puts first-half electrified-vehicle sales at 4.58 million in China and 2.35 million in Europe; those totals should not be read as battery-electric sales alone. 1

Beyond those markets, BloombergNEF identifies Southeast Asia among the places where EV adoption is gaining momentum. However, the available sources do not provide comparable figures here for Southeast Asia, Oceania and South Korea that would show how much each contributed to the 49% global gasoline-only share.

The outlook is promising, not guaranteed

BloombergNEF forecasts that electric cars will account for 27% of global car sales in 2026, up from 9% five years earlier, and projects that electric vehicles will make up 52% of passenger vehicles by 2035. Those are forecasts, not settled outcomes—and the 2026 projection is not directly interchangeable with the gasoline-only share, which uses a different category. 19

The clearest takeaway is narrower but important: gasoline-only cars have fallen below half of new-car sales, while hybrids and EVs make up an increasingly large part of the market. How quickly that mix changes further will depend on regional demand, vehicle and battery affordability, fuel costs and policy.