How have Middle Eastern crude oil exports recovered toward pre war levels according to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, how has Saudi Arabia driven that rebound through Hormuz and the restarted East West Pipeline, and why do the banks’ estimates differ, particularly over dark shipment

Middle Eastern crude exports have rebounded close to their pre-war pace, but the recovery is uneven and vulnerable. JPMorgan puts crude shipments at 17.5 million barrels a day—98% of pre-war levels—while Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including hard-to-track shipments, reached 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, matching their 2025 average.39

• Saudi Arabia is central to the rebound. More cargoes are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has restored about half the capacity of its East-West Pipeline after drone attacks. The pipeline provides an export route that bypasses Hormuz.612
• The estimates are not directly comparable. JPMorgan’s figure is for Middle Eastern crude against a pre-war baseline; Goldman’s is a recent Gulf export estimate against a 2025 average and includes “dark” shipments by tankers with tracking signals switched off.3911 Those voyages are inherently difficult to count, so the precise size of the recovery remains uncertain. Goldman also reports that Iran shipped no crude by sea in September: the regional rebound therefore does not mean every exporter has recovered.15
• Refined fuels remain far behind. JPMorgan estimates diesel, gasoline and other product flows at 3 million barrels a day, only 58% of pre-war levels. A near-normal crude export figure should not be read as a near-normal supply of usable fuels.6
• Brent still carries a security risk. The extra crude supply has weighed on prices, but Brent was still trading around $100 a barrel on September 30.2 Tanker threats and the pipeline’s only partial restoration mean another attack or renewed disruption could reverse flows; the rebound is evidence that routes are working again, not that they are secure.1612