How Far Is China From Building Its Own EUV Lithography Machines?

China’s path to an independent extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine remains uncertain, but two recent estimates point to a substantial gap. Zeiss semiconductor chief Frank Rohmund called about 15 years a reasonable estimate for China to develop its own EUV machines; UBS says a viable alternative to ASML’s EUV technology is unlikely within the next decade. These are forecasts, not fixed deadlines, and the estimates describe related—but not identical—milestones. 13

Why EUV is a difficult target

Lithography machines are part of the equipment used to pattern circuits on chips. EUV is the technology at the center of the current catch-up debate: UBS’s reported assessment focuses on whether China can develop equipment that could replace ASML’s leading EUV technology. Rohmund cautioned that China’s progress is difficult to quantify, so the 15-year estimate should not be read as a precise countdown. 13

The challenge also involves more than designing a machine. Zeiss is a key supplier of the specialized optics used in ASML’s EUV systems, making the supplier relationship an important part of the industry’s current supply chain. 2

DUV could advance sooner—but it is not EUV

China’s nearer-term opportunity is immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography, an older category of equipment. UBS analysts reportedly expect China could reach high-volume production of immersion DUV systems in two to five years. That forecast points to potential progress in domestic equipment production, not to an EUV breakthrough or a replacement for ASML’s most advanced systems. 3

Keeping the distinction clear matters: a forecast for DUV production should not be presented as evidence that China has closed the EUV gap. The available estimates treat the two technology tracks separately. 3

Export controls cut both ways

The reported restrictions keep EUV systems out of China, and some advanced immersion DUV exports are also subject to licensing requirements. Those limits restrict access to foreign equipment, while Rohmund has warned that adding controls could encourage China to speed up its own innovation. 2311

That makes the long-term effect difficult to reduce to a simple advantage for either side. Restrictions can constrain access to tools, but the Zeiss executive’s warning is that they may also strengthen the incentive to build domestic alternatives. The sources do not establish how quickly that response could narrow the gap. 2

AI demand and Zeiss’s capacity response

AI-related demand is also shaping the equipment market. A report on Zeiss’s response to rising demand for semiconductor optics says the company had expanded its semiconductor manufacturing headquarters, was building additional production capacity at another site, and said it could scale further if needed.

That is evidence of a capacity response to demand—not a stated plan specifically aimed at China’s EUV development or export controls. The distinction matters: the industry outlook includes both the competitive race for advanced lithography and the practical challenge of supplying more optics as demand grows.

What the estimates do—and do not—say

The clearest reading is that China may make progress in DUV sooner than in EUV, while the estimates for developing an EUV machine or a viable alternative remain measured in a decade or more. Zeiss’s 15-year figure is a judgment by a major equipment supplier, and UBS’s timeline is an analyst forecast; neither is a guaranteed schedule. 13

For the outlook, three points stand out: Zeiss’s optics are a key part of ASML’s EUV supply chain; export controls restrict access but may also motivate domestic development; and rising AI-linked demand is prompting Zeiss to add capacity. How those forces interact will shape the market, but the available reporting does not pin down when—or whether—China will match today’s EUV systems. 23