Why Deutsche Bank Sees a Copper Squeeze—and $22,050 a Ton by 2027

Deutsche Bank’s warning is about available copper: metal that buyers can obtain, rather than all copper already mined or held in reserves. Its analysts argue that low exchange inventories, supply disruptions and stockpiling by the U.S. and China could tighten the market for buyers elsewhere. The bank’s price forecast and shortage scenario depend on those pressures continuing; they are not evidence that a worldwide physical shortage is certain. 38

Why available copper could become scarce

Inventory figures offer one indication of the squeeze. In July, copper held in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange was down more than 80% from mid-March. LME-approved warehouse inventories had fallen 24% since the end of May. Reuters also reported that U.S. imports drawn by tariff expectations were tightening the market outside the U.S. 2

Stocks are only one part of the picture. Deutsche Bank cites earlier mine-supply disruptions, the risk of further interruptions to refined-copper supply and demand for infrastructure and hardware supporting AI. The bank has also identified the threat of U.S. tariffs as a factor drawing metal toward the U.S.; grid and power infrastructure are among the longer-term sources of copper demand cited by Goldman Sachs. 31213

The timing matters: the prospect of tariffs can encourage buyers to bring copper into the U.S. before any levy takes effect. China, meanwhile, has been accumulating strategic copper reserves for decades. Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Ghali estimates that the U.S. and China could together hold 71% of global copper supply by the end of 2026. That is an analyst estimate, not a measure of metal that is necessarily unavailable for every use. 38

Deutsche Bank’s price and shortage scenarios

Deutsche Bank sees copper potentially reaching $22,050 a metric ton, or $10 a pound, in the second quarter of 2027—nearly 50% above the price level used for its forecast. The bank also reportedly projects an average of $20,900 a ton in 2027 and $18,500 in 2028, implying some easing after the projected peak. 3

The more extreme warning is conditional: if the current stockpiling trend continues, Ghali’s analysis suggests freely available copper could approach exhaustion by the end of 2028, leaving some users elsewhere unable to obtain supplies. This is a scenario based on continued stockpiling, not a certainty. 8

Higher prices could encourage some users to substitute aluminum for copper where their products and designs allow. But that would not make the metals interchangeable in every application, and substitution is better understood as a possible response to high prices than a guaranteed fix for a supply squeeze.

How the forecasts compare with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan

The published numbers point to different views, but they are not directly comparable forecasts for the same date and conditions:

• Deutsche Bank: $22,050 a ton in Q2 2027, with reported annual averages of $20,900 in 2027 and $18,500 in 2028. 3
• Goldman Sachs: A report in August put its end-2026 forecast at $13,735 a ton. An earlier Goldman outlook expected prices to fall somewhat from record levels in 2026, showing that the bank’s view has changed over time. 1318
• J.P. Morgan: Its published $11,100–$11,200-a-ton figure applies if bearish macroeconomic scenarios play out; it is not a direct equivalent to Deutsche Bank’s Q2 2027 price target. 14

The practical takeaway is the difference in assumptions: Deutsche Bank’s warning emphasizes stockpiling and tight supplies available outside the U.S. and China, while the other figures reflect different forecast dates or downside conditions. The available forecasts do not establish a single consensus path through 2028.