Why ‘Hybrid Warfare’ May No Longer Describe Russia’s Threat to Europe

“Hybrid warfare” usually describes pressure that falls short of conventional war, such as sabotage, cyberattacks or disinformation. But as drones cross borders and crash or explode, some European officials argue the term can make a growing physical threat sound too indirect. That is a debate about how to describe the incidents—not proof that every one was deliberately aimed at a NATO country or ordered by Moscow. 312

Why the label is under scrutiny

The term remains widely used by European governments and news outlets. Critics say it does not fully convey incidents with tangible consequences, including airspace violations, drone crashes and suspected sabotage. The distinction matters: an incident can be dangerous without its intent or attribution being established. 912

European leaders and analysts have described the broader pattern as a possible way to pressure countries supporting Ukraine and test NATO’s cohesion. That remains an assessment of Russia’s aims, not evidence that a direct attack on the alliance is imminent. 1117

What the Romania and Moldova incidents show

During Russia’s Sept. 24 attack on Ukraine, Moldova’s president said four drones entered Moldovan airspace and that at least one exploded. Romania reported a drone crash after an aerial vehicle crossed into its airspace; it scrambled F-16s. Poland also scrambled military aircraft during the attack. These events show how fighting in Ukraine can create risks beyond its borders, but the reports do not establish that every crossing was intentional.

The countries’ positions differ, too. Romania is a NATO member; Moldova is not. Romanian officials did not directly blame Russia for the Sept. 24 crash, while Moldovan officials identified the incursions as Russian. Separate reporting describes an earlier Romanian shootdown of an explosive-laden drone near an offshore gas platform, underlining that responses can vary by incident. 6

What Danish intelligence warned—and what it did not

Denmark’s defence intelligence service assessed that Russia was likely to increase the frequency of hostile activity and identified a low but growing risk of a limited military attack. It also said Russia’s aim was to divide NATO. The warning points to concern about escalation and alliance cohesion; it is not a prediction that a broader war has begun. Russia has denied involvement in hybrid attacks and sabotage. 17

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said the alliance has plans to handle sabotage and drone incidents. At the same time, the repeated need to scramble aircraft highlights the challenge of responding to incursions and protecting infrastructure. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for stronger protection of critical sites. 208

The Mediterranean warning is still a report, not a confirmed operation

A report cited by The Guardian said Spain, France and Italy had been warned about a possible Russian drone attack from the Mediterranean in the coming year. The available account presents this as a reported warning about a possible threat—not a confirmed Russian operation or an attack that has taken place. 13

The overall picture is therefore serious but uncertain: European officials see a pattern that may test NATO’s readiness and unity, while the circumstances and attribution of individual incidents differ. Calling the activity “hybrid” captures its below-the-threshold character; critics argue the term should not obscure its increasingly physical consequences. 1217