Why is Samsung Electronics forecast to post a record third-quarter operating profit above 100 trillion won (about $74 billion), and how do the brokerage estimates, projected semiconductor and DRAM margins, AI-driven shift from conventional DRAM to HBM and server memory, DRAM pric

Samsung is forecast to exceed 100 trillion won in third-quarter operating profit because AI demand is lifting memory-chip prices while the shift toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server products is tightening supply of conventional DRAM. It would be a new quarterly record, but it remains a forecast, not a reported result. 19

• Estimates and margins: A late-September consensus put operating profit at about 105.6 trillion won, above Samsung’s second-quarter estimate of 89.4 trillion won. 103 Yuanta Securities projected 100 trillion won of profit from the semiconductor division alone: 102 trillion won from memory, partly offset by a 2 trillion won non-memory loss. 5 DRAM operating margins have been forecast to top 80%, but that is an analyst projection rather than a disclosed company margin. 9

• Why the memory mix matters: Capacity directed toward HBM and AI-server memory leaves less available for conventional DRAM. That supports prices across the market, so Samsung can benefit from both higher-value products and tighter supply of ordinary chips. 19

• Prices and delivery times: Reported August contract prices for commodity PC DRAM were still rising, while server-memory prices had climbed much more sharply; a 64GB DDR5 server module was reported at $1,500 in mid-September, versus $272 a year earlier. 611 Extended DDR5 delivery times point to tight near-term supply, but do not guarantee that prices will keep rising at the same pace. 9

• Coming-quarter risk: The outlook depends on how long that tight supply lasts. Kiwoom cut its third-quarter profit forecast from 122 trillion to 107 trillion won, citing a stronger won and a smaller-than-expected increase in commodity DRAM prices. A stronger won reduces the won value of dollar-denominated chip sales; slower price gains could therefore temper earnings even if AI-related demand remains strong. 8