Oil Rises After Pezeshkian Rejects Surrender but Backs Diplomacy

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s September 23 address to the UN General Assembly left a narrow opening for diplomacy but offered no sign that Iran would yield to U.S. pressure. Traders reassessed prospects for a quick deal, and oil rose after earlier declines driven by hopes of improved Gulf supply. 1311

How did Brent and WTI react?

Brent crude futures settled $3.83 higher, or 3.86%, at $103.08 a barrel on September 23. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.64, or 1.81%, to $92.16. Reuters identified Pezeshkian’s speech as a driver of the rise, though oil prices were also responding to changing expectations for shipments from the Middle East. 13

Where do the U.S. and Iran stand?

Speaking at the UN a day earlier, President Donald Trump raised the possibility of a deal to end the war but warned that, without one, he could “annihilate” the Islamic Republic. He also urged other countries to isolate Iran economically and predicted an agreement after the November U.S. midterm elections—a longer timeline than hopes for an imminent breakthrough. 24

Pezeshkian called Trump’s approach a “bullying mentality,” said Iran would not surrender and maintained that diplomacy could end the conflict. He portrayed Iran’s military actions as defensive and accused the United States and Israel of attacking his country. Reports of contact between U.S. and Iranian officials showed that talks remained possible, not that the two sides had reached a deal. 81011

What do energy forecasts—and the limits of the evidence—show?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September outlook raised its oil-price forecasts as lost Middle Eastern supply reduced global stockpiles. It projected Brent would average about $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026. That period-average forecast is not a prediction of oil’s next daily close.

The available sources do not establish a specific OECD assessment of energy prices or inflation. Higher oil costs can add pressure to fuel prices, but no numerical OECD inflation forecast can be reliably attributed from this evidence.

What could move oil prices next?

A credible agreement that restores Gulf shipments could ease concern about supply and put downward pressure on oil prices. If shipping disruption persists, the risk runs the other way: before the war, roughly 20% of global oil supply moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Neither scenario guarantees a particular Brent or WTI price; actual flows and the course of negotiations will matter more than the speeches alone. 3