Pezeshkian’s UN Speech Shook U.S.–Iran Deal Hopes and Lifted Oil Prices

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s September 23 address to the UN General Assembly delivered a message oil traders could not read as a breakthrough: Iran would not surrender to U.S. pressure, though it remained willing to pursue diplomacy. After earlier declines driven partly by hopes of a deal, crude prices climbed on the day of his speech. 123

Oil reversed course—but Brent and WTI rose by different amounts

Brent futures settled September 23 at $103.08 a barrel, up $3.83, or 3.86%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled at $92.16, up $1.64, or 1.81%. The distinction matters: Reuters described the session as an oil rally of nearly 4%, but that percentage applied to Brent, not WTI. 3

Earlier in the week, prices had fallen as traders considered the prospect of U.S.–Iran diplomacy and a partial recovery in Saudi oil shipments. Pezeshkian’s refusal to capitulate weakened expectations of a quick settlement, even as his support for negotiations kept a diplomatic outcome possible. The price move reflects that changing assessment, not proof that talks have failed. 123

What each side said about a deal

At the UN on September 22, President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. could “annihilate” Iran if there were no agreement to end the war, while also suggesting a deal could come soon. The following day, Pezeshkian rejected surrender and pressure but said Iran remained open to a diplomatic resolution. Their public positions leave room for talks, not evidence that they have agreed on terms. 117

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the stakes. Pezeshkian addressed the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s efforts to restrict trade through the waterway in his speech. Whether negotiations reduce those tensions will matter to oil shipments as well as to the prospects for a wider settlement. 12

The oil and inflation risks ahead

Before the UN speeches, the U.S. Energy Information Administration had raised its 2026 oil-price forecasts as lost Middle Eastern supply drew down global inventories. Its September outlook put average Brent at about $91 a barrel and WTI at $84.65 for the year. Those are annual forecasts issued before the September 23 price jump, not predictions of where either benchmark will trade next. 4

Further disruption to shipments through Hormuz could sustain upward pressure on oil prices; an agreement that restores flows could ease it. A prolonged energy-price rise would also pose an inflation risk. The available publishable sources, however, do not establish the OECD’s specific inflation warning or a reliable figure for its projected impact, so no OECD estimate can be stated here. 412