Will Apple’s iPhone Duo Expand the Foldable Market—or Hurt Samsung?

Apple’s first foldable iPhone is poised to reshape the premium end of the foldable market, but not necessarily by taking sales directly from Samsung on day one. The iPhone Duo starts at $1,999 in the U.S., opens from a 5.4-inch outer display to a 7.6-inch internal display, and is scheduled for pre-orders on October 16 and availability on October 23. 310

The immediate financial opportunity for Apple

A foldable priced at $1,999 gives Apple a new high-value product tier. Each sale can contribute more revenue than a conventional flagship sold at a lower starting price, so even limited volume could improve the mix of iPhone sales toward premium devices.

The limits matter, however. TrendForce estimates approximately 5 million iPhone Duo shipments in 2026, which would give Apple 24.8% of global foldable-phone shipments and make it the segment’s second-largest brand behind Samsung. It also forecasts a global foldable market of about 20.2 million units, up only 0.5% year over year. Those are forecasts rather than results, and they underscore that foldables remain a niche beside the broader smartphone market.

Reuters similarly reported Counterpoint’s estimate that Apple could sell close to 6 million Duo units by year-end, while IDC expects foldables to account for less than 3% of global smartphones in 2026. The implication is clear: Duo could be material for Apple’s premium-device revenue and its position in foldables without immediately transforming the economics of the entire iPhone business.

Why Samsung may gain demand before Apple starts shipping

The early read from South Korea is counterintuitive. Local reports said Galaxy Z Fold 8 sales increased by about 10% week over week after Apple unveiled the Duo. The reports do not provide absolute unit totals, so the figure should be treated as a short-term market signal rather than proof of a lasting trend.

Price is a plausible reason. In South Korea, the 256GB iPhone Duo is priced at 3.29 million won, compared with 2.28 million won for the 256GB Galaxy Z Fold 8—a gap of more than 1 million won. For buyers attracted to the larger-screen foldable format but unwilling to pay Apple’s local price, the Duo announcement may make Samsung’s established alternative more visible rather than less appealing.

That does not mean Apple poses no threat to Samsung. Apple brings a large installed base of iPhone users who have had no foldable option inside the iPhone lineup. But it does suggest the first effect of Apple’s entry may be category expansion and comparison shopping, not immediate Samsung displacement.

What to expect in Australia

Australia is among the initial markets where iPhone Duo is due to become available on October 23. 612 Yet there is no reliable post-launch Australian sell-through evidence in the supplied reporting, so firm claims about switching between Apple and Samsung would be premature.

The likely near-term behavior is heavier comparison shopping across premium phones: buyers can weigh a first-generation Apple foldable against Samsung’s existing Z Fold line, conventional iPhone 18 Pro models, carrier installment offers and trade-in values. Actual carrier promotions and retail availability could matter as much as the list price.

The iPhone 18 Pro remains the lower-cost premium Apple option

The Duo broadens Apple’s top end; it does not automatically replace the appeal of a conventional Pro phone. Reuters reported starting U.S. prices of $1,199 for iPhone 18 Pro and $1,299 for iPhone 18 Pro Max, leaving a substantial gap below the $1,999 Duo.

That gap gives Apple a ladder of premium choices. Buyers who want an iPhone but do not want a foldable form factor—or do not want to spend $1,999—still have a conventional Pro alternative. The Duo may therefore function as a halo product for Apple’s high-end lineup as much as a direct substitute for it.

Component costs make premium demand more fragile

High pricing is not only an Apple issue. TrendForce attributes its muted 2026 foldable-market growth forecast in part to sharp increases in component costs, which it says are likely to constrain the category. That environment makes premium demand more sensitive to financing, trade-in offers and carrier subsidies.

For Apple, a $1,999 starting price narrows the addressable market even if interest is strong. For Samsung, it creates an opening to position its foldables as the more accessible choice—especially in markets where the local price gap is much wider than in the U.S.

Samsung’s most credible response

Samsung does not need an unannounced product to answer the Duo. Its strongest immediate case is practical: emphasize its foldable experience, available models, software and multitasking capabilities, retail availability, trade-in values and carrier promotions. The South Korean pricing comparison shows why price-led marketing could be particularly effective there.

Claims that Samsung has accelerated a Galaxy Z TriFold 2 or finalized specific Galaxy Z Fold 9 improvements should remain unconfirmed unless Samsung announces them. The available reporting supports a competitive response through current products and commercial offers, not definitive conclusions about future-device plans.

What will determine the real winner

The decisive measures have not arrived yet. Watch iPhone Duo pre-orders beginning October 16, delivery timing, cancellation and return patterns, carrier incentives, and October-to-December sell-through for both Apple and Samsung. 3

For now, the evidence supports a more nuanced conclusion than “Apple versus Samsung”: Apple is likely to become a significant foldable vendor quickly if forecasts hold, while Samsung can still benefit from the publicity and the Duo’s premium price. The first foldable iPhone may enlarge the market before it materially redistributes it.