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What are the projected strength, duration, and global consequences of the intensifying 2026–27 El Niño—including NOAA’s probabilities that it will become “very strong” or surpass all events since 1950, current Niño 3.4 and subsurface temperature anomalies, the WMO’s estimate that
The 2026–27 El Niño is forecast to strengthen into an exceptional event, with NOAA assigning more than a 90% chance of “very strong” conditions and a 75% chance that its October–December 2026 intensity will exceed every El Niño in NOAA’s record since 1950. WMO assesses a near-100% likelihood that it The 2026–27 El N...
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- The 2026–27 El Niño is forecast to strengthen into an exceptional event, with NOAA assigning more than a 90% chance of “very strong” conditions and a 75% chance that its October–December 2026 intensity will exceed every El Niño in NOAA’s record since 1950. WMO assesses a near-100% likelihood that it
- The 2026–27 El Niño is forecast to strengthen into an exceptional event, with NOAA assigning more than a 90% chance of “very strong” conditions and a 75% chance that its October–December 2026 intensity will exceed every El Niño in NOAA’s record since 1950. WMO assesses a near-100
- ## Strength and duration
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The 2026–27 El Niño is forecast to strengthen into an exceptional event, with NOAA assigning more than a 90% chance of “very strong” conditions and a 75% chance that its October–December 2026 intensity will exceed every El Niño in NOAA’s record since 1950. WMO assesses a near-100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, with effects extending well into 2027. 1
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Strength and duration
- NOAA’s latest assessment reports Niño 3.4 at +1.8°C in August; Niño 3 was +2.5°C and Niño 1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño 4 was only +0.1°C.
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- Subsurface Pacific heat is an important warning sign: NOAA reports widespread anomalies exceeding +10°C at depth and a deeper-than-normal thermocline, supporting continued strengthening.
- NOAA projects a greater than 90% probability of a “very strong” El Niño in Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter 2026–27.
- It assigns a 75% probability that the October–December 2026 three-month RONI will reach at least +2.5°C—its threshold for a “historic” event stronger than all recorded El Niños since 1950.
- WMO expects the event to peak near the end of 2026 and assigns nearly 100% odds of persistence through February 2027.
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Expected global weather consequences
El Niño shifts probabilities; it does not guarantee a particular outcome in every place or individual storm. Its size raises the likelihood that its characteristic rainfall and temperature patterns will dominate seasonal weather. 2
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- Heavier rain and flooding: Elevated risk is generally expected in parts of the eastern and southern tropical Pacific, western South America, southern South America, eastern Africa, and portions of the southern United States. A very strong event can substantially rearrange global rainfall patterns and increase flood risk.
- Drought, heat and wildfire: Suppressed rainfall over Indonesia is already evident in NOAA’s observations. El Niño also typically raises risks of drought, extreme heat and wildfire in Indonesia, Australia, parts of southern Africa, Central America and other rain-dependent regions.
- Hurricanes: El Niño commonly increases upper-level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, tending to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation, while reducing shear and favoring activity in parts of the central/eastern Pacific. These are seasonal tendencies, not a forecast that any basin will be quiet or active in every location. The available evidence specifically notes suppressed hurricane activity as an emerging impact, but does not provide a quantified 2027 basin forecast.
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- Polar vortex: A strong tropical-Pacific signal can influence Northern Hemisphere winter circulation and may alter the odds of polar-vortex disruptions or cold outbreaks. However, the evidence supplied does not support a specific prediction of a polar-vortex event; this should be treated as a low-confidence, indirect teleconnection rather than an expected consequence.
Heat and 2027 records
- El Niño tends to lift global mean temperature, often with the strongest global effect occurring after the Pacific peak.
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- Against already exceptionally warm ocean conditions and human-driven warming, the UK Met Office has said it is “very likely” that 2027 will become the world’s hottest year on record. This remains a forecast, not an established result.
- WMO says the tropical Pacific’s exceptional warmth supports further El Niño intensification, while its leaders frame the episode as occurring in a broader environment of rising sea-surface and air temperatures.
Food, humanitarian and economic risks
- The key food-security threat is simultaneous climate stress across several agricultural regions: floods can destroy crops and infrastructure, while drought and heat can reduce yields, livestock productivity, water availability and planting success for rain-fed crops. WMO warns that a very strong event can drive major worldwide shifts in rainfall, temperature, floods, drought and extreme heat.
- Risk is particularly acute where households depend on seasonal rainfall, have limited irrigation or food reserves, or are already experiencing crop losses; Reuters reported crop failures in Central America during 2026.
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- Climate shocks can be amplified by conflict, high food prices and disrupted trade routes, which constrain imports, humanitarian access and government response. However, the supplied evidence does not quantify the combined impact of those pressures for this El Niño, so precise global food-loss or famine projections would be unsupported.
Why authorities are urging exceptional preparation
WMO calls for exceptional preparation because the forecast combines unusual confidence in persistence with a high likelihood of extreme impacts across many regions. Its recommended practical emphasis is stronger early warning, regional seasonal forecasting, pre-positioned relief and food supplies, drought and flood planning, protection of water systems and crops, and coordination between meteorological, disaster-response and humanitarian agencies. 7
The important caveat is that record-breaking strength is still probabilistic: NOAA’s 75% estimate leaves a meaningful 25% chance that the event will not surpass the post-1950 benchmark, and regional outcomes will depend on local weather variability and preparedness. 2
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The 2026–27 El Niño is forecast to strengthen into an exceptional event, with NOAA assigning more than a 90% chance of “very strong” conditions and a 75% chance that its October–December 2026 intensity will exceed every El Niño in NOAA’s record since 1950. WMO assesses a near-100% likelihood that it
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The 2026–27 El Niño is forecast to strengthen into an exceptional event, with NOAA assigning more than a 90% chance of “very strong” conditions and a 75% chance that its October–December 2026 intensity will exceed every El Niño in NOAA’s record since 1950. WMO assesses a near-100% likelihood that it The 2026–27 El Niño is forecast to strengthen into an exceptional event, with NOAA assigning more than a 90% chance of “very strong” conditions and a 75% chance that its October–December 2026 intensity will exceed every El Niño in NOAA’s record since 1950. WMO assesses a near-100
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## Strength and duration
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