How Strait of Hormuz Disruption Is Raising Europe’s Fuel and Gas Costs

Disruption to energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has translated quickly into a European affordability shock. Oil and gas are traded in global markets, so even countries that do not buy directly from Gulf producers can face higher wholesale costs when shipping flows become uncertain or constrained.

The evidence points to a clear distinction: Europe may have tools to cushion an outright oil-supply emergency, but consumers and businesses are already exposed to a steep geopolitical risk premium in diesel, petrol and natural gas.

Road-fuel prices: diesel is taking the larger hit

A September report citing the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin said the EU average price of Euro-super 95 petrol rose from €1.64 per litre on February 23 to €2.04 on September 7—about 24%. Over the same period, diesel rose from €1.59 to €2.11 per litre, a roughly 33% increase.3

That gap matters. Diesel is central to road freight and commercial transport, so its faster rise can work through supply chains rather than remaining only a cost at the filling station. The European Commission’s bulletin provides weekly consumer-price comparisons for petroleum products across EU countries.1

The reported country-level changes were uneven. Denmark and Finland recorded the largest petrol increases, at about 36%, while Bulgaria saw the largest diesel increase, at about 47%.3 Percentage moves do not by themselves show the burden on households or firms, but they show that the shock has not been uniform across Europe.

Oil markets have repriced the threat to supply routes

Reduced traffic through Hormuz has made traders more concerned about access to crude and refined products. Reuters reported that only four commodity vessels transited the strait on one September day, against a 10-day average of about 15.3

Brent crude settled at $107.63 a barrel on September 10 after rising 6.34% in one session, while U.S. crude settled at $102.48.18 Higher crude prices feed into European refinery costs and, ultimately, the price of petrol, diesel and jet fuel—although the pass-through is neither immediate nor identical in every country.

Gas markets face a separate LNG-driven shock

Europe’s exposure is not confined to oil. The Dutch TTF benchmark, a key reference price for European natural gas, rose to €75.2 per megawatt-hour on September 7, its highest level since late 2022, according to one market report.13

The mechanism is straightforward: Gulf shipping disruption affects liquefied natural gas as well as oil. When LNG cargoes become harder to move, Europe must compete more intensely for available supply from other exporters. That raises the cost of refilling storage and increases sensitivity to cold weather or any additional interruption in supply.

Why high prices do not automatically mean an immediate shortage

European oil security has safeguards that can soften a short-term disruption. The International Energy Agency’s members are required to maintain emergency oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports.1 These reserves do not prevent market prices from rising, but they can add supply during a disruption and reduce the risk that a temporary shipping shock becomes an immediate physical shortage.

That is why the near-term European story is best understood as adequacy versus affordability. Emergency stocks and alternative supply routes may help maintain access to oil, while households, hauliers, airlines and energy-intensive companies still face substantially higher and more volatile costs.

What to watch next

The key variables are the duration and severity of the shipping disruption, the availability of replacement LNG and crude supplies, and the timing of winter demand. Persistent constraints would likely keep diesel and jet-fuel markets tight, support elevated gas prices and add to inflation pressure across transport and energy-intensive goods.

For now, the most visible measure of the shock is at the pump: petrol and diesel costs have risen sharply, with diesel’s larger increase posing the greater economy-wide risk. The simultaneous jump in Brent and TTF shows that Europe is confronting an interconnected oil-and-gas price shock, not a single-fuel problem.31318