Why output can still rise: Foreign partners can revive existing fields relatively quickly by restoring wells, supplying diluents for Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude, repairing local equipment and improving operations. Chevron plans more than $7 billion of investment to raise its Venezuelan output to about 600,000 bpd within five years, and the Eni, GE Vernova and Chevron agreements are intended to expand production and power capacity. 24

Why Goldman remains cautious: The starting point is severely degraded. Decades of PDVSA mismanagement, corruption, loss of skilled personnel, underinvestment, shortages of equipment and diluents, and sanctions caused output to fall below 1 million bpd in the late 2010s. 15 Recovering production therefore means not simply drilling more wells, but rehabilitating gathering systems, pipelines, upgraders, storage, export terminals, refineries and the electricity supply that runs them.

Infrastructure is an immediate ceiling: Ageing terminals, power outages and crude-quality issues have already constrained exports; tankers have reportedly waited up to 30 days to load. That means incremental upstream production can become stranded or discounted if ports, blending capacity and logistics do not expand in tandem. 3

The power grid matters directly: Oil fields, pumps, compressors, water handling, upgrading and loading operations need dependable electricity. Venezuela’s repeated power problems have hampered oil and mining operations, so field-level investment alone cannot deliver sustained national growth. 9

PDVSA is both partner and constraint: International companies can improve selected joint ventures, but the state company remains central to field access, infrastructure and commercial execution. Its legacy of poor maintenance and capital allocation makes nationwide recovery slower and riskier than the headline agreements suggest. 15

Goldman Sachs: A near- to medium-term recovery, but not a return above the pre-2018 level of 2 million bpd in the next few years. This is essentially a cautious “incremental recovery” case: new investment helps, but systemwide bottlenecks dominate. 13

Chris Wright: More optimistic on the near term—about 50% growth in 12–18 months and production above 1.5 million bpd in the first half of next year—then above 2 million bpd by 2030. From a 1.2–1.25 million bpd base, 50% implies roughly 1.8–1.9 million bpd, which would require unusually fast execution across fields, infrastructure and power supply. The 2030 target is longer-dated and is not inherently inconsistent with Goldman’s statement about the “next few years,” but it is materially more bullish. 816

Modest/industry scenario: About 1.5 million bpd by 2028 is more aligned with Goldman’s cautious framing: it allows meaningful growth without assuming that every bottleneck is resolved quickly. A prior industry view also held that up to 500,000 bpd could be added in two years only with political stability and substantial U.S. investment. 7

Return to 3 million bpd: This is a different order of magnitude. Rystad estimates approximately $183 billion of investment during 2026–2040, including roughly $53 billion merely to maintain current production, with 3 million bpd around 2040—not a rapid rebound. 81113 Bloomberg separately reported Rystad’s judgment that returning to the historic peak could take decades. 5

Why output can still rise: Foreign partners can revive existing fields relatively quickly by restoring wells, supplying diluents for Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude, repairing local equipment and improving operations. Chevron plans more than $7 billion of investment to raise its Venezuelan output to about 600,000 bpd within five years, and the Eni, GE Vernova and Chevron agreements are intended to expand production and power capacity. 24

Why Goldman remains cautious: The starting point is severely degraded. Decades of PDVSA mismanagement, corruption, loss of skilled personnel, underinvestment, shortages of equipment and diluents, and sanctions caused output to fall below 1 million bpd in the late 2010s. 15 Recovering production therefore means not simply drilling more wells, but rehabilitating gathering systems, pipelines, upgraders, storage, export terminals, refineries and the electricity supply that runs them.

Infrastructure is an immediate ceiling: Ageing terminals, power outages and crude-quality issues have already constrained exports; tankers have reportedly waited up to 30 days to load. That means incremental upstream production can become stranded or discounted if ports, blending capacity and logistics do not expand in tandem. 3

The power grid matters directly: Oil fields, pumps, compressors, water handling, upgrading and loading operations need dependable electricity. Venezuela’s repeated power problems have hampered oil and mining operations, so field-level investment alone cannot deliver sustained national growth. 9

PDVSA is both partner and constraint: International companies can improve selected joint ventures, but the state company remains central to field access, infrastructure and commercial execution. Its legacy of poor maintenance and capital allocation makes nationwide recovery slower and riskier than the headline agreements suggest. 15

Goldman Sachs: A near- to medium-term recovery, but not a return above the pre-2018 level of 2 million bpd in the next few years. This is essentially a cautious “incremental recovery” case: new investment helps, but systemwide bottlenecks dominate. 13

Chris Wright: More optimistic on the near term—about 50% growth in 12–18 months and production above 1.5 million bpd in the first half of next year—then above 2 million bpd by 2030. From a 1.2–1.25 million bpd base, 50% implies roughly 1.8–1.9 million bpd, which would require unusually fast execution across fields, infrastructure and power supply. The 2030 target is longer-dated and is not inherently inconsistent with Goldman’s statement about the “next few years,” but it is materially more bullish. 816

Modest/industry scenario: About 1.5 million bpd by 2028 is more aligned with Goldman’s cautious framing: it allows meaningful growth without assuming that every bottleneck is resolved quickly. A prior industry view also held that up to 500,000 bpd could be added in two years only with political stability and substantial U.S. investment. 7

Return to 3 million bpd: This is a different order of magnitude. Rystad estimates approximately $183 billion of investment during 2026–2040, including roughly $53 billion merely to maintain current production, with 3 million bpd around 2040—not a rapid rebound. 81113 Bloomberg separately reported Rystad’s judgment that returning to the historic peak could take decades. 5