The statements point to a prolonged war rather than an imminent ceasefire: Kyiv sees only limited, technical openings for contact, while Moscow publicly says negotiations have stalled and continues to press its territorial demand. 12

• Budanov’s assessment: Kyrylo Budanov said he expects fighting to continue through the winter and that a near-term end to the war is unrealistic. He said Ukraine must mobilize at least 30,000 people monthly to sustain the defense. 31

• Contacts and possible talks: Budanov described current Ukraine–Russia interaction as largely confined to prisoner exchanges, while expressing hope that technical-level talks could resume soon—possibly in September—with U.S. participation. He cautioned that such talks would be preparatory rather than a quick route to an agreement. 45

• Core obstacle: Russia’s position remains that Ukraine must relinquish the entirety of Donetsk oblast, including territory Russia does not control. That condition is fundamentally incompatible with Kyiv’s stated position and helps explain why a ceasefire is not close. 31

• Peskov’s position: Dmitry Peskov said negotiations were in a “deep pause,” claiming there were “no new ideas,” and tied Russia’s posture to what the Kremlin says are continuing battlefield gains. Reporting also indicated no planned Putin–Trump call. 67

• Ratcliffe visit: CIA Director John Ratcliffe did visit Moscow and met Russian intelligence officials, but the Kremlin said he did not meet Putin; the trip therefore did not produce a visible diplomatic breakthrough. 8

• Domestic and military consequences: The need for sustained mass mobilization underscores mounting social pressure in Ukraine, especially as the prospect of another winter of war and infrastructure disruption looms. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a Lukoil refinery—aiming to reduce resources available for Russia’s war effort. 19

• Escalating infrastructure war: Russia has intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports, industrial sites, and retail-distribution facilities, while Ukraine’s energy sector reports repeated attacks on gas infrastructure. Russia has also acknowledged strikes on Ukrainian defense-industry and transport-logistics targets. 101112

Taken together, the picture is of diplomacy reduced largely to humanitarian and technical channels while both sides intensify campaigns against the other’s military-industrial, energy, logistics, and economic capacity. 1510

The statements point to a prolonged war rather than an imminent ceasefire: Kyiv sees only limited, technical openings for contact, while Moscow publicly says negotiations have stalled and continues to press its territorial demand. 12

• Budanov’s assessment: Kyrylo Budanov said he expects fighting to continue through the winter and that a near-term end to the war is unrealistic. He said Ukraine must mobilize at least 30,000 people monthly to sustain the defense. 31

• Contacts and possible talks: Budanov described current Ukraine–Russia interaction as largely confined to prisoner exchanges, while expressing hope that technical-level talks could resume soon—possibly in September—with U.S. participation. He cautioned that such talks would be preparatory rather than a quick route to an agreement. 45

• Core obstacle: Russia’s position remains that Ukraine must relinquish the entirety of Donetsk oblast, including territory Russia does not control. That condition is fundamentally incompatible with Kyiv’s stated position and helps explain why a ceasefire is not close. 31

• Peskov’s position: Dmitry Peskov said negotiations were in a “deep pause,” claiming there were “no new ideas,” and tied Russia’s posture to what the Kremlin says are continuing battlefield gains. Reporting also indicated no planned Putin–Trump call. 67

• Ratcliffe visit: CIA Director John Ratcliffe did visit Moscow and met Russian intelligence officials, but the Kremlin said he did not meet Putin; the trip therefore did not produce a visible diplomatic breakthrough. 8

• Domestic and military consequences: The need for sustained mass mobilization underscores mounting social pressure in Ukraine, especially as the prospect of another winter of war and infrastructure disruption looms. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a Lukoil refinery—aiming to reduce resources available for Russia’s war effort. 19

• Escalating infrastructure war: Russia has intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports, industrial sites, and retail-distribution facilities, while Ukraine’s energy sector reports repeated attacks on gas infrastructure. Russia has also acknowledged strikes on Ukrainian defense-industry and transport-logistics targets. 101112

Taken together, the picture is of diplomacy reduced largely to humanitarian and technical channels while both sides intensify campaigns against the other’s military-industrial, energy, logistics, and economic capacity. 1510