What did Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov say about the war’s likely continuation through winter, Ukraine’s need to mobilize at least 30,000 people per month, the limited prisoner exchange contacts and possible September techni

The statements point to a prolonged war rather than an imminent ceasefire: Kyiv sees only limited, technical openings for contact, while Moscow publicly says negotiations have stalled and continues to press its territorial demand. 12

• Budanov’s assessment: Kyrylo Budanov said he expects fighting to continue through the winter and that a near-term end to the war is unrealistic. He said Ukraine must mobilize at least 30,000 people monthly to sustain the defense. 31

• Contacts and possible talks: Budanov described current Ukraine–Russia interaction as largely confined to prisoner exchanges, while expressing hope that technical-level talks could resume soon—possibly in September—with U.S. participation. He cautioned that such talks would be preparatory rather than a quick route to an agreement. 45

• Core obstacle: Russia’s position remains that Ukraine must relinquish the entirety of Donetsk oblast, including territory Russia does not control. That condition is fundamentally incompatible with Kyiv’s stated position and helps explain why a ceasefire is not close. 31

• Peskov’s position: Dmitry Peskov said negotiations were in a “deep pause,” claiming there were “no new ideas,” and tied Russia’s posture to what the Kremlin says are continuing battlefield gains. Reporting also indicated no planned Putin–Trump call. 67

• Ratcliffe visit: CIA Director John Ratcliffe did visit Moscow and met Russian intelligence officials, but the Kremlin said he did not meet Putin; the trip therefore did not produce a visible diplomatic breakthrough. 8

• Domestic and military consequences: The need for sustained mass mobilization underscores mounting social pressure in Ukraine, especially as the prospect of another winter of war and infrastructure disruption looms. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a Lukoil refinery—aiming to reduce resources available for Russia’s war effort. 19

• Escalating infrastructure war: Russia has intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports, industrial sites, and retail-distribution facilities, while Ukraine’s energy sector reports repeated attacks on gas infrastructure. Russia has also acknowledged strikes on Ukrainian defense-industry and transport-logistics targets. 101112

Taken together, the picture is of diplomacy reduced largely to humanitarian and technical channels while both sides intensify campaigns against the other’s military-industrial, energy, logistics, and economic capacity. 1510