What prompted Deutsche Bank to downgrade Novo Nordisk to Sell after its shares fell roughly 70% from their 2025 peak, lowering the price target from 290 to 265 Danish crowns, and how do the bank’s concerns about weak growth through 2027, the failed ziltivekimab trial, limited Med

Deutsche Bank’s downgrade reflected a view that Novo Nordisk’s problems are structural and near-to-medium term—not simply a share-price overreaction. The China oral-Wegovy filing is a meaningful strategic option, but it is not yet an approval or revenue contribution sufficient to offset the bank’s concerns over slowing growth, pipeline disappointments, competition, and future patent losses. 23

• Why Deutsche Bank turned bearish: It cut Novo to Sell from Hold and reduced its target to DKK265 from DKK290, citing continued doubt about a credible return to growth in 2027 and a substantial longer-term semaglutide patent cliff. 13

• Near-term growth and estimates: The concern was that weak commercial execution and lower expectations would require further mid-term revenue-estimate cuts. External forecast data cited in market coverage put revenue at about DKK309 billion in 2025, DKK299 billion in 2026, and DKK304.25 billion in 2027—effectively flat over the three-year span. 17

• Pipeline and franchise setbacks: Ziltivekimab was viewed as effectively out after its trial failure; CagriSema’s disappointing performance versus Lilly’s Zepbound weakened the case for Novo regaining obesity-market leadership. 31416 The R4 setback and below-expectation U.S. oral-Wegovy prescription/sales trajectory compounded the concern that new products are not yet replacing maturing semaglutide franchises quickly enough. 10

• Demand and competitive limitations: Deutsche Bank saw limited incremental benefit from expanded U.S. Medicare prescriptions, while Eli Lilly remained a formidable competitor in injectable obesity medicines and is also seeking to bring its oral obesity pill, orforglipron, to China. 32

• Capital Markets Day risk: With Novo’s September 21 Capital Markets Day approaching, the downgrade effectively signaled that investors need evidence of a durable 2027 recovery, credible post-semaglutide products, and realistic guidance—not just a strategic narrative.

• China is upside, but conditional: China’s NMPA has accepted Novo’s marketing application for oral Wegovy; that advances the product through the regulatory process, but it is not marketing approval. 2 The addressable Chinese weight-management market could reach roughly CNY30 billion, according to JPMorgan, so oral Wegovy could expand access and provide a substantial longer-run growth leg. 7

• How to reconcile the two: China is a potentially valuable call option: a convenient oral product in a very large market can diversify Novo beyond the United States and support volume growth. But the bearish thesis is more immediate and broader—approval timing, pricing, reimbursement, local competition, Lilly’s prospective oral entry, and execution will determine whether that opportunity becomes material revenue. As a result, the China filing improves optionality but does not, by itself, resolve the weak 2025–27 growth outlook or the later patent-cliff risk. 23