How is Russia responding to a worsening domestic fuel crisis caused by sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil refineries and fuel terminals—including the August 21 attack that shut down the Perm refinery, Russia’s seventh-largest refinery, amid a broader strike involving 32

Russia is responding by treating the refinery losses as a domestic-supply emergency: it has curtailed exports, begun importing fuel despite being a major exporter, sought outside processing capacity, and accepted pressure on supplies to allied markets. The shutdown of the Perm refinery after the August 21 drone strike removes production from Russia’s seventh-largest refinery and compounds the disruption from earlier attacks. 2

• External refining in Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan says Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude; 70% of the resulting gasoline and diesel is to be sent back to Russia, while Kazakhstan retains 30% for its own market. 1011 This is effectively an emergency “tolling” arrangement: Russia supplies feedstock but uses foreign refining capacity to replace lost domestic output, while Kazakhstan secures a reserved share rather than surrendering all product.

• Importing while banning exports: Moscow extended restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports through January 31, 2027 to protect its domestic market. 1 It had already announced plans to import gasoline by sea—an unusual reversal for a large refined-product exporter—after refinery strikes created shortages. 7 Reports of purchases from Kazakhstan and India fit this same strategy, although the precise claimed volume of more than one million barrels since late July was not independently confirmed in the sources reviewed.

• Domestic controls: The policy mix implies that repairing plants alone is not sufficient: the government is trying to conserve fuel, reroute available supplies, substitute imports, and suppress shortages and price rises. Claims about more than 30% of refining capacity being constrained, 50 million people being affected, and specific rationing measures in at least 10 regions could not be independently verified from the strongest available reporting; they should therefore be treated cautiously.

• Central Asian spillover: Kyrgyzstan—heavily dependent on Russian fuel—has faced supply risk as Russia’s capacity to deliver petroleum products has been reduced. 3 Bishkek sought assistance from Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and subsequently imposed an indefinite ban on exports of gasoline, diesel, and oil to preserve domestic stocks. 45 It also began direct talks with China’s Sinopec in August, signaling a push to diversify supply. 9

• Strategic significance: Moscow must now choose between domestic political and economic stability and maintaining fuel flows that underpin its regional influence. The Kondensat deal partly eases Russia’s shortfall, but Kazakhstan’s 30% retention and Kyrgyzstan’s search for non-Russian suppliers show that neighboring states are prioritizing their own security of supply rather than acting simply as a reserve fuel pool for Russia. 101149