How Drought Could Triple Global Wheat Prices

Projected wheat prices at 2°C and 3°C warming

The study’s warming scenarios point to substantially higher average wheat prices:

• About $273 per tonne at 2°C of warming
• About $364 per tonne at 3°C of warming

The higher figure is roughly three times the inflation-adjusted global wheat price used for the study’s 2010 comparison. These are model-based scenario estimates, not predictions for a particular calendar year or a guaranteed market price.

The result is not simply that every tonne of wheat will cost three times as much. Rather, more frequent or severe climate-related supply shocks could raise average prices and increase the likelihood of sharp price spikes.

Up to 60% of today’s wheat area could face simultaneous scarcity

Longer-term projections provide the most serious warning. Without climate mitigation under a high-emissions pathway, up to 60% of today’s wheat-growing area could experience simultaneous severe water scarcity by the end of the century, compared with about 15% under present conditions. Climate stabilization consistent with the Paris Agreement would reduce the risk, although it would not eliminate it.

That projection describes the area exposed to a concurrent water-scarcity event—not a prediction that 60% of wheat production will disappear. Actual outcomes would also depend on adaptation, crop breeding, irrigation, planting decisions, trade and food-stock policies.

How current wheat markets illustrate the problem

Recent wheat-market movements show why climate risk cannot be separated from geopolitics and logistics. Wheat prices rose almost 25% above January 2026 levels amid widespread drought and Black Sea shipping disruptions, according to CGIAR. Reuters later reported that Chicago wheat futures had climbed more than 17% since early July as attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure tightened supply expectations.

Those events are not a clean test of the Earth’s Future study. The current market moves combine drought with attacks, shipping risk and redirected trade. They do, however, illustrate the study’s central implication: a climate-related production problem can become more disruptive when the routes connecting exporters and importers are also under strain.

The policy lesson: treat drought as a global market risk

The study’s warning extends beyond farm-level water management. Governments and food companies need to account for correlated risks across producing regions, including:

• better drought monitoring during wheat’s sensitive growth stages;
• crop adaptation and more resilient varieties;
• climate mitigation to limit the growth of simultaneous water scarcity;
• diversified trade routes and import sources; and
• emergency food and stock-management policies that can protect vulnerable consumers.

The central takeaway is straightforward: local droughts can remain local, but synchronized drought across major wheat regions can move through global supply chains and affect food affordability worldwide. Measuring that shared exposure gives policymakers a clearer way to anticipate the next wheat-price shock.