Potential broadening, not necessarily a broad market: Strategists see signs that second-half leadership could spread more evenly along the AI supply chain, from chips through infrastructure. But the expansion is largely from one AI layer to another, rather than into unrelated EM sectors.
Why Asia captures the trade: Asia represents roughly 82% of MSCI EM by weight, and the relevant manufacturing ecosystems are concentrated in China, Taiwan and South Korea. That makes the region a natural beneficiary of global AI buildout, while also increasing geographic and benchmark concentration.
Other tailwinds: A weaker dollar can improve the relative backdrop for EM assets and currencies, while AI data centers’ very large electricity needs add an electrification and grid/power-infrastructure angle. Those themes can draw capital toward under-owned Asian equities and power-related suppliers—but the evidence does not establish that they have yet produced broad-based EM participation.
Core risk: These are not defensive alternatives to TSMC, Samsung or SK Hynix. Their sales ultimately rely on the same hyperscaler spending cycle; a capex slowdown, supply normalization, macro shock or geopolitical disruption could hit chips, cooling, servers and optical suppliers simultaneously.
“Ghost rally” test: The 22% index gain can mask weak breadth: most EM constituents and non-tech sectors had lagged earlier in the year, according to Neuberger Berman’s analysis. Adding smaller AI suppliers improves breadth within technology infrastructure, but it may simply extend a concentrated, Asia-centric AI rally unless gains spread to sectors and countries beyond that cluster.