What is the current state of the UN secretary general succession contest as the Security Council holds its second informal straw poll, including the results and voting method of the first poll; the eight candidates—Rebeca Grynspan, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, Rafael Grossi, Ivonne

The contest remains open as the Security Council conducts its second confidential, non-binding straw poll today. Rebeca Grynspan remains the early leader from the July 30 vote, but no candidate is close to a settled recommendation and major-power veto politics will determine the outcome.

• First poll and standings: Council members anonymously marked each candidate “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.” Grynspan received 10 encourages, 1 discourage and 4 no-opinion votes; Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett was second with 9 encourages, and IAEA chief Rafael Grossi third with 7.

  • The remaining original candidates—Michelle Bachelet, María Fernanda Espinosa, Macky Sall and Olara Otunnu—were behind the top three; the first ballot was a preliminary measure of support, not a decision.
  • Ivonne Baki was not on that ballot: Tonga nominated the Ecuadorian former minister and ambassador only this week, making her the eighth candidate and the second Ecuadorian in the race.

• Baki’s bid: Baki, 75, has made conflict prevention and UN renewal her central message, referring to her experience of Lebanon’s civil war. Reports that she has U.S. backing, or that her relationships with Donald Trump and Bill Clinton translate into U.S. support, should be treated as unverified political claims rather than a publicly confirmed U.S. position; the available reporting confirms neither an official endorsement nor a voting commitment. Insufficient evidence supports a stronger conclusion.

• The field: The eight candidates are Costa Rica’s Grynspan; Guyana’s Rodrigues-Birkett; Argentina’s Grossi; Ecuador’s Baki and Espinosa; Chile’s Bachelet; Senegal’s Sall; and Uganda’s Otunnu. Grynspan, Rodrigues-Birkett and Grossi are the demonstrated first-poll front-runners; Baki’s very late entry means her actual Council support is not yet known.

• Baerbock dispute: General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock has pressed for timely nominations, public candidate dialogues and broader member-state participation, including a public-facing audience poll. The United States and Russia argue that this encroaches on the Security Council’s Charter-based authority to recommend a secretary-general; reporting describes Washington’s criticism as accusing her of trying to undermine the process, while Moscow says it is concerned by the role she has assumed. The poll has political, not legal, force.

• Russia’s posture: Moscow has signalled that additional candidates remain possible and has criticized António Guterres’s record, particularly in the wider context of UN effectiveness and conflict management. That preserves Russia’s leverage: openness to new names can be a way to prevent an early consensus around the current front-runners. The evidence presently available does not establish that Russia has committed to, or vetoed, any named candidate.

• What happens next: By UN practice and Article 97, the Council must recommend one candidate to the General Assembly. A candidate needs at least 9 of the 15 Council votes and no veto from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States. Later straw polls normally distinguish permanent-member views, making veto risk more visible.

• Timing and regional politics: Guterres’s second term ends on December 31. The informal regional-rotation expectation favors Latin America and the Caribbean this time—though it is a political convention, not a binding rule—which helps explain the unusually strong Latin American presence. Further polls can continue through October or later if the permanent members remain divided; reporting already anticipated a process lasting into October, especially as candidates can still enter.

The key unknown after today’s poll is not merely who has the most “encourage” votes, but whether any leading candidate can assemble nine votes while remaining acceptable to all five permanent members.