Capacity is scarce even at Samsung: SF4 capacity at Pyeongtaek was reportedly fully utilized for Qualcomm chips and base dies used in Samsung’s HBM products. Samsung also had to balance Chinese orders against U.S. customers and its own semiconductor/product needs, so it reportedly could not accept every Chinese order. Google was reported to be negotiating for SF4 capacity, which would reinforce that constraint.
What it reveals about the market: this is a broad capacity squeeze, not only a cutting-edge-node shortage: the near-10% rise at 8 nm indicates demand is spilling into older processes as customers seek any usable manufacturing slot. Samsung itself has forecast that chip shortages could become more acute and persist into 2028.
Why it matters to Samsung financially: Samsung Foundry remained loss-making, but higher average selling prices, fuller fabs, and more advanced-node mix would improve fixed-cost absorption and margins. A return to profitability in 2027 is plausible if utilization, yields, customer wins, and pricing remain strong—but it is a forecast, not an announced result.
The competitive caveat: Samsung still had only 7% of global foundry revenue in Q1 2026, versus TSMC’s more than 70%, according to Counterpoint. Counterpoint’s own quarterly data put TSMC at 73% and Samsung at 7%, underscoring that Samsung is gaining a scarcity-driven opportunity from a small base rather than displacing TSMC as the market leader.
In short, the increases represent Samsung monetizing a temporary-to-medium-term supply bottleneck: Chinese sourcing constraints, AI demand, TSMC capacity saturation, and Samsung’s own fully loaded lines have combined to make available Samsung wafers more valuable. The key test for a 2027 profit turnaround is whether this converts into repeat, high-margin external orders after capacity expands and competitive alternatives re-emerge.