Iran’s leverage: Tehran has demonstrated an ability to deter, selectively threaten and impose conditions on shipping, rather than simply close the waterway permanently. Its parliamentary plan includes barring U.S. and Israeli vessels, while Iran has sought transit charges of 5%–7% of cargo value.

Disputed flow picture: Claims that the strait is effectively shut are hard to reconcile with evidence of some continuing, escorted or selectively permitted traffic. The strongest public tracking estimate still indicates a severe collapse in flows, but it cannot fully establish all movements or resolve competing U.S. and Iranian claims about who controls safe transit.

Iran–Oman proposal: Discussions reportedly contemplated an Oman-mediated arrangement under which Iran would oversee inbound traffic. That may allow a partial reopening, but it would institutionalize Iranian discretion over a major international chokepoint; Oman has discussed a lower fee of about 3%, while Washington opposes fees.

Outlook: Normalization looks remote, not imminent. The U-turns follow stalled diplomacy and tanker attacks, while the Trump administration’s renewed economic pressure on Tehran has hardened the contest over shipping access rather than produced a mutually accepted security regime.

Iran’s leverage: Tehran has demonstrated an ability to deter, selectively threaten and impose conditions on shipping, rather than simply close the waterway permanently. Its parliamentary plan includes barring U.S. and Israeli vessels, while Iran has sought transit charges of 5%–7% of cargo value.

Disputed flow picture: Claims that the strait is effectively shut are hard to reconcile with evidence of some continuing, escorted or selectively permitted traffic. The strongest public tracking estimate still indicates a severe collapse in flows, but it cannot fully establish all movements or resolve competing U.S. and Iranian claims about who controls safe transit.

Iran–Oman proposal: Discussions reportedly contemplated an Oman-mediated arrangement under which Iran would oversee inbound traffic. That may allow a partial reopening, but it would institutionalize Iranian discretion over a major international chokepoint; Oman has discussed a lower fee of about 3%, while Washington opposes fees.

Outlook: Normalization looks remote, not imminent. The U-turns follow stalled diplomacy and tanker attacks, while the Trump administration’s renewed economic pressure on Tehran has hardened the contest over shipping access rather than produced a mutually accepted security regime.